Ahaan Rungta
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We are back on the hardwood to start the week with 2 games exclusive to the single-elimination playoffs of the In-Season Tournament. The Boston Celtics face the Indiana Pacers to start the night and the New Orleans Pelicans go up against the Sacramento Kings to wrap things up. Spots in the tournament semifinals are up for grabs.
Two spots stand out the most in terms of value on the betting market. These are my favorite NBA player props bet for Monday, December 4, and make sure you also check out our NBA picks for tonight’s matchups.
Payton Pritchard, PG, BOS, Under 7.5 points (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The last time the Celtics and Pacers faced off, it was a bludgeoning at TD Garden — where the Celtics won by 51 points. However, that was with Boston having its entire rotation healthy in a low-stakes regular-season game against an Indiana team missing its best player in Tyrese Haliburton. Tonight Boston is missing Kristaps Porzingis, and although Haliburton is listed as questionable with an illness the Pacers are only +6 underdogs. I’m expecting this game to be competitive under the bright lights of the tournament and that’s pretty much all we need to fade the backup point guard Payton Pritchard with confidence at this number.
Although Porzingis is going to be out for Boston, his absence opens the doors for other backup bigs on the Celtics and not the offensive-minded guard Pritchard. If the game is close for four quarters, Pritchard’s lack of defensive prowess alone would keep him off the floor and if he struggles to shoot well early, he might not see any clutch-time minutes. With the Celtics having their full guard and wing rotation healthy for this one, I have Pritchard projected for just 20 minutes in a mean scenario and he is already averaging just 6.25 points per 20 minutes this season. Additionally, the Pacers at full strength are a tough matchup. On the season they have allowed the fewest above-the-break 3-point makes per game, and that’s the zone from where Pritchard gets 48 percent of his field-goal attempts.
For Pritchard to clear this line, he would either need to hit a few shots early in the game after he checks in or see a spike in playing time in a lopsided game script. Let’s fade him since his line is too high.
Lock in our Pacers vs Celtics Same Game Parlay for tonight at +528 odds
Domantas Sabonis, C, SAC, Over 17.5 points (-120)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This prop has failed to hit in 4 straight games, but we can attribute part of that to foul trouble and part to tough matchups. Now it’s time to buy the dip. Today’s Western Conference tournament playoff game is a matchup that we have seen a few close contests from in recent history and the books are expecting another one with a 3.5-point spread in favor of the Kings at home. If the game is to stay competitive, Sacramento will need its franchise center to stay in the game for a maximum amount of playing time in order to seal a spot in the semifinals.
In his Kings career, Sabonis has averaged 18.1 points per 36 minutes when facing Jonas Valanciunas. This season Sabonis has continued to thrive as a scorer when De’Aaron Fox is in the lineup, which is the case tonight. The big man is averaging 19.7 points per 36 minutes alongside Fox both this season and in his overall career. Overall, the Pelicans have allowed the eighth-most field goals in the paint and that zone is from where Sabonis gets 34 percent of his attempts.
It’s a scoring kind of night for the reigning NBA rebounding leader.
All eyes on our Pelicans vs Kings Same Game Parlay for tonight’s In-Season Tournament matchup
