The calendar has officially turned, and for the first time ever (not fact checked), we’re treated to regular season basketball in the month of May. Tonight, we have a larger than typical Saturday slate, with ten games on the schedule. A ton of intriguing player props, of course. But if you’re looking to place some bets on sides and totals, be sure to check out all of our analysts’ picks and analysis.
Now that we’re in the stretch run of the season, teams will look to mak their final push. Players are in the same boat, even if not looking towards the postseason, leading to some juicy prop spots. For tonight, I’m keying in on two players in entirely different situtions.
Russell Westbrook over 12.5 rebounds (-105)
Line available at publishing.
Here we go again, with what’s become my favorite prop of the season. Tonight, I’m looking to make it five in a row with this prop, as Westbrook and the Wizards take on the Mavericks.
The Wizard point guard’s raw numbers are just so tantalizing. In his last 25 games, he’s averaging 13.5 rebounds, and has exceeded this line 18 times (72%). Five of those games during that span were on zero days rest, as is tonight, with Westbrook grabbing at least 13 rebounds four times.
The Mavericks currently allow 52.9 total rebounds per game to their opponents, which is the eleventh most in the NBA. Versus the teams in the top half of the league allowing the most rebounds, Westbrook’s average jumps to 14.2 boards per game over his last 15, hitting this total twelve times (80%).
I know, it’s anything but conventional, but the UCLA alum has lead the Wizards into the playoff picture. Washington has won twelve of their last fourteen games – meaning there is no reason for Westbrook to stop playing the way he has. I love for him to keep crashing the boards tonight, as I have the point guard projected at 14 rebounds.
Killian Hayes under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Line available at publishing.
The Pistons rookie point guard might have a big future ahead of him, but I don’t see him showing that potential tonight. In his last ten games, Hayes is averaging 15.1 PRA on 25 minutes per game – an average of 0.61 PRA per minute. Based on that average, he’d need to play 35 minutes tonight to exceed this total. His high this season is 33 minutes, and has only played more than 30 minutes twice.
Tonight, the neophyte will be treated to the Hornets defense, which has allowed the ninth fewest PRA to opposing point guards. Where the Hornets excel defensively is at keeping their opponents out of the paint. In their last 15 games, Charlotte has allowed the eighth least percentage of shots within 10 feet of the basket, and the seventh fewest made baskets within that range. Hayes’ low volume scoring is predicated on him getting to the basket, as he’s only shooting 31% on his jump shots.
The Hornets do allow for plenty of assists, but that’s based on their opponent’s ability to score on the spot up shot. The Pistons rate as the seventh least efficient spot up shooting team, and this is only magnified without Jerami Grant in the lineup. Hayes should find tough sledding on the assist front as well tonight.
Given the tough matchup and lofty total, I’m liking Hayes to underpeform tonight. I have the rookie projected at 17 PRA.
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