Saturday is here, and we’re treated to a full day of NBA basketball. Two matinee games, follwed by six contests tonight, all of which are sure to serve as the perfect complement to your weekend plans. With an abundance of available action to be had, be sure to check out all of our analysts’ picks, before you put in any full game or totals bets.
I’m loving the possibilities we have tonight with regards to player props. As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m finding it easier to fish out value in the over markets, as teams and players continue to gear up towards the playoffs. Tonight, again, is no exception.
Brandon Ingram over 24.5 points (-112)
Line available at publishing. Playable at 0ver 25.5 for a partial unit.
Zion Williamson gets a lot of the adoration and accolades (deservingly so), but Ingram has once again put together a quality season for New Orleans. The forward is averaging career highs in scoring (24.3 points) and efficient shooting (54% effective field goal percentage) as he looks to help the Pelicans make a late push towards the playoffs. Since returning from a toe injury that cost him five games, Ingram is averaging 26.9 points, and has eclipsed this line in seven of the nine contests.
Tonight, Ingram and the Pelicans host the Spurs. In two previous games versus San Antonio this season, Ingram notched 28 and 29 points. Perhaps more interestingly, Williamson has only averaged 20.5 points versus San Antonio, including a 41% field goal percentage, by far his worst versus any team this season. The combination of Keldon Johnson’s on ball defense with Jakob Poeltl manning the paint made it tough on Williamson. In general, the Spurs allow the least points to opposing power forwards this season. The might not be able to hold Zion down a third time, but the matchup definitely skews more towards Ingram’s strengths.
Ironically enough, the Spurs are 3.5 games better than the Pelicans right now, as they hold down the last playoff spot in the West. With less than 15 games remaining, this reads as a must win game for New Orleans. Ingram should get all the minutes he should handle tonight, and be leaned on to lead the offense. I have the Duke product projected at 27 points tonight.
Rudy Gobert over 13.5 rebounds (+106)
Line available at publishing. Over 12.5 rebounds also available (-134).
We’re back with another rebounding prop, this time of the more traditional variety. Gobert, once again, has been an absolute force in the paint for the Jazz this season. He’s grabbing 13.6 rebounds per game, which is good for second in the NBA, as he’s helped lead the Jazz to the NBA’s best record.
Gobert’s matchup tonight, the Timberwolves, are on the complete opposite side of the NBA spectrum, with the league’s second worst record. Minneasota plays at a blistering pace (third fastest in the league), and allows their opponents the third most rebounds per game. These types of opponents suit Gobert well. Versus all teams in the top ten of most rebounds allowed, Gobert is averaging 15.8 boards per game. He’s had at least 14 rebounds in 12 of 17 of these opportunities (71%).
Beyond that, Gobert has had 14+ rebounds versus Minnesota (and Karl-Anthony Towns) in their last four matchups. While the potential for a blowout is relevant, such a gamescript would likely come at the expense of a lot of missed shots from Minnesota. In the high volume rebounding matchups, Gobert grabbed 14 boards in less than 30 minutes five of six times.
I love Gobert to continue on this trend tonight. My projections have the perennial all first team defender at 15 rebounds, making this a great play at plus odds.
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