We’ve hit the last Saturday in March, as we have another intriguing night of NBA basketball. With the weekend-heavy schedule, several teams are in action that played last night, posing some unique matchups. With all of the variables at play, be sure to check out all of our analysts’ picks for game sides and totals.
On the player prop side, I’ve found two spots where I’m seeing plenty of value. One involves a player on a back-to-back, and the other where I’m looking to capitalize on a hot streak – here are my two best bets of the night.
Steven Adams under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106)
Line available at publishing.
In his first season with this Pelicans, the big man is averaging a combined 19.1 points, rebounds and assists this season (PRA). However, in the eleven games during March, that average dips to 17.8. During that span, he’s stayed under this total in eight games.
The Pelicans are coming off tough loss versus the Nuggets last night. Adams played a season high 41 minutes, going toe-to-toe with MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. The quick turnaround has limited Adams’ production through out his career, averaging a 9% PRA dip on the second night of back-to-backs. Despite averaging 28 minutes per game this season, the kiwi is only registering 22 minutes per game on zero days rest and 14.9 PRA. He has yet to eclipse 28 minutes, and he’s stayed under this line in five of seven games.
After a slow start to the season, Dallas has played some stout defense as of late. In March, the Mavericks have the eight best defensive rating, allowing the fourth least points and ninth least rebounds. Over that stretch, the Mavericks have held opposing centers under their season PRA average in seven of eleven games.
Even with Kristaps Porzingis being a rest candidate for Dallas tonight, I like the Mavericks to be able to contain the Pelicans center. I have Adams’ PRA projected in the 15-16 range tonight.
De’Aaron Fox over 26.5 points (-114)
Line available at publishing. Playable to over 27.5 points.
Sometimes with player props, it makes sense to ride the wave. The Kings standout point guard is averaging an even 30 points per game in March, objectively playing some of the best basketball of his career. As the Kings make their playoff push, he’s eclipsed 27 points in nine of his eleven games this month, with his two misses versus the stout defenses of the Lakers and Sixers.
Tonight, Fox will be opposed by the below average defense of the Cavs. Cleveland, ranking 20th in defensive rating, also allows the eighth most points in the paint, and the eighth most transition points. Fox is at his best when he’s out on the fastbreak, as well as getting to the basket off the pick and roll. The matchup proved beneficial on Monday, when Fox dropped 30 on the Cavs.
I love the fourth-year pro to continue his assault on the opposition tonight. I have the Kings point guard pegged just shy of 30 points in this prime matchup.
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