Germantas Kneita
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There are 8 games on the NBA slate tonight, including a crucial matchup in the Western Conference. The Utah Jazz will be visiting the Dallas Mavericks in a game which could close the game between the 4th and 5th seeds. The Jazz currently hold a 1.5-game lead over their rivals, but a win for the home team could make the 4th seed up for grabs once more. You can check out my player prop selection for that game below.
You can find our full game previews for all of tonight’s games here. But now let’s jump right into my player prop picks for Monday.
Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds (+102)
On the season, there does not seem to be a team Jokic enjoys rebounding against more than the Golden State Warriors. His average of 18 boards per game against them is the highest of his against any opponent he has played more than once this year. Kevon Looney is the perfect matchup for the reigning MVP. He is smaller than Jokic, does not stretch the floor and is not a force on the offensive glass. Over the last 10 games the Warriors have been missing shots, too, ranking just 19th in field-goal percentage. Jokic looks set to be the one cleaning those up tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets.
Domantas Sabonis over 17.5 points (+100)
Sabonis is undoubtedly one of the most active big men in the league. Constantly moving, crashing the glass and banging on the inside with opposing bigs. This level of activity should make things tough for the Knicks tonight, who are playing their second game in as many nights. Sabonis has played 4 games against the Knicks this season, averaging 16.8 per game. He does have 2 performances against them were he managed 21 points. With Randle not having the length to effectively contest his shots and with the Knicks being fatigued, I expect the Kings’ center to take advantage.
Russell Westbrook under 5.5 assists (+116)
In my player prop picks article on Saturday I had backed this exact line on Westbrook at +100 odds. He delivered 4 assists on the night despite the Lakers scoring 124 points. Somehow the odds have improved so I will be backing this again. Westbrook has recorded 6 or more assists just once in his last 5 games. His opponents tonight will be the San Antonio Spurs who over the last 10 games have a better defensive rating than the Warriors did. Dejounte Murray has the defensive attributes to keep Westbrook from getting to the paint. And with the Lakers still 26th in 3-point percentage over the last 10, their shooters are likely to struggle converting on any drive and shoot opportunities he is likely to create. The under seems like a great value play.
Rudy Gobert over 26.5 points + rebounds (-113)
The Dallas Mavericks tend to deploy Dwight Powell at the center position, something which should work in favor of Gobert. While Powell is athletic, Gobert should have a size and strength advantage over his opponent. Powell is not someone that can stretch the floor either, although he can be a threat in the pick and roll. With the length of the Frenchman, however, look for him to try and negate this in the paint rather than on the perimeter. Gobert has recorded 17 rebounds in 3 of his last 5 games. With his size also likely to gain him second-chance opportunities, I expect him to convert these and put together a strong stat line.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks.
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