Germantas Kneita
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After hitting each of my selections on Saturday I am back to try and do so once more tonight. We have 7 games on the NBA slate which includes a meeting between the top 2 sides in the Eastern Conference. The outcome of the game between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls could go a long way toward deciding who is in the top spot at the end of the regular season.
You can find our full game previews for each of tonight’s games here. Bu for now let’s check out my player prop picks below.
Domantas Sabonis over 39.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
The Sacramento Kings will have a great chance to get back in the win column tonight, but to do so they will need a monster night from one of their stars in Domantas Sabonis. Luckily for them he will have a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder that should be very favorable for him. In his only other game against them this season he was able to put up 24 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists. Considering that since joining the Kings he has managed double digit boards along with at least 5 assists in all but one game, he could be set for something similar here.
Derrick Favors is set to start for the Thunder tonight, but he is currently averaging just 0.3 blocks per game. That is unlikely to be enough to cause an inefficient night from Sabonis. With him offering poor floor spacing too, it should have the Kings center in prime position to rebound. On the season the Thunder are 22nd in opponent second chance points per game, and it seems like Sabonis is set take full advantage here. Back the over on this line as a result.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma City Thunder.
Bam Adebayo over 4.5 assists (-110)
With Kyle Lowry unavailable for the game tonight, the playmaking responsibilities will be spread out throughout the Heat roster. Jimmy Butler should see a fair load of this but Bam Adebayo is likely to benefit too. The last time he faced off against Nikola Vucevic and the Bulls, Adebayo recorded 6 assists. And while he has only recorded 5 or more assists once in his last 5 games, he was on the cusp of doing so on 3 occasions, coming an assist shy. With Lowry out and a favorable opponent, it should be enough for him to hit 5 tonight.
Over the last 10 games the Bulls rank 18th in opponent assists per game. That should mean that passing opportunities will be out there for Adebayo. He is also far more athletic than his direct matchup in Vucevic, who is also dealing with a sprained ankle. As a result, I expect to see Adebayo push the ball up the floor after rebounds more tonight, which could lead to assists in transition.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat.
Wendell Carter Jr. over 11.5 rebounds (+100)
Wendell Carter Jr. has been on a good rebounding run of late, managing double digit boards in each of his last 4 games. He was able to hit 12 boards in 2 of those contests. I expect him to do just that tonight too, against an opponent he has had success against this season. The Magic center was able to pull down 18 rebounds in his sole meeting with the Pacers this year, with the opponents having already been without the services of Sabonis. There has not been a dominant rebounder that has been able to step in his place, which should lead to another great night for Carter Jr. tonight.
In recent games Robert Williams III, Bobby Portis, Thomas Bryant and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all exceeded their season average in rebounds against the Pacers. Considering that Carter Jr. is averaging 10.2 rebounds per night, doing the same for him would likely hit this over.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic.
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