Best NBA player props for Monday's slate: Gobert rules the paint

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert
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Germantas Kneita

NBA

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Like most Lithuanians, I started watching basketball from the age of six. I'm based out in London and played basketball at the University of Lincoln here in the UK. I had always had an interest in the NBA but things really took off in the summer of 2010. That year Linas Kleiza led Lithuania to 3rd place at the World Championships and signed with the Toronto Raptors to replace the departing Chris Bosh. I've been a Raptors fan since that day and I've not missed a game since. I've been handicapping games for more than a decade, specializing in player props. For Germantas Kneita media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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There will be 6 NBA games going ahead tonight after the matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Toronto Raptors was postponed. There is an interesting battle in the Eastern Conference as the Philadelphia 76ers take on the Boston Celtics. Both teams will be hoping that a win can propel them out of the play-in positions and into 6th place in the conference standings.

You can check out our full game previews here as always. But now let’s take a look at my favorite player prop selections.

Rudy Gobert over 15.5 points (-118)

Rudy Gobert has been able to score 16 or more points in 4 of his last 5 games and he should have the opportunity to do that tonight too. The Charlotte Hornets should be a favorable opponent for him as they are 29th in the NBA in opponent second-chance points per game. Gobert ranks 4th in scoring in that category and could look to improve on those numbers tonight. Over the last 10 games the Hornets have allowed teams to score a league-worst 124.4 points per game. On top of that, only the Sacramento Kings allow more points in the paint this season. Gobert has managed 16 or more points in 2 of the 3 meetings against the Kings this season, with 21 in his last outing against them. Expect something similar against the Hornets.

Matchup-wise he will see time against Mason Plumlee. The center still seems to be working his way back from injury and has not surpassed the 20-minute mark in his last 2 games. PJ Washington is likely to see time at the 5 too, which should work well for Gobert as he will have a massive size advantage in the paint. Overall, it feels like the Hornets do not have the personnel to stop Gobert from getting what he wants at the rim. I would not be surprised to see him have a 20-point night.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Charlotte Hornets vs Utah Jazz

Draymond Green under 9.5 points (-102)

This seems like a great value bet considering that Draymond Green has reached double-digit points just once in his last 10 games. In that game he attempted 10 shots from the field, whilst in every other game he failed to take more than 8 shots. He attempted just 6 shots in each of his last 2 outings, with some one his attempts coming from deep, where he is horribly inefficient. On the season his 3-point percentage is just 27.6% which has dropped to 20% in December. Hedoes not get to the line much either, with just 2.3 attempts per game. With him shooting just 60% on free throws, he is unlikely to rack up points that way.

He is likely to see time against Chimezie Metu, who is a very active defender. The Kings forward is averaging 1.3 blocks and 1 steal per game this month and could cause Green issues with his activity. Considering his athleticism, he should have no issue getting out to the perimeter and contesting Green’s 3-pointers, which should ensure his efficiency does not spike from out there. The Warriors are also heavy favorites tonight and Green’s minutes could be limited if the game is a blowout. The under seems to be the bet to make.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors

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