Ahaan Rungta
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After an entertaining NFL regular season came to a close, we turn our attention to the hardwood for a 6-game slate. These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, January 8.
Tyler Herro, SG, MIA, Over 21.5 points (-129)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Miami Heat scoring guard Tyler Herro has hit his first road bump of the season and is coming off his worst shooting games. He is under this line in 3 straight contests, but the key for betting in the NBA is volume. Talented NBA players figure it out and I will gladly bet on regression to the mean in a great matchup.
With the Houston Rockets still missing Dillon Brooks, their very solid defense is compromised. Since losing Brooks, Houston ranks #20 in defensive rating, has allowed the fifth-most corner 3s made per game and is a below-average defense in the restricted area and paint. Herro is a priority in Miami’s fluid offense with Jimmy Butler out; this season, he has averaged 21.6 points per 35 minutes — a mark he should reach today if the game stays competitive as the Vegas spread of 4 points advertises.
This bet is good up to -130 at this number; if the line moves to 22.5, take the over down to -115.
Kris Dunn, PG, UTA Over 1.5 first quarter points (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.50u wager.
There aren’t too many experiences in NBA betting more thrilling than a first-quarter bet. This time I’m targeting a player whose priority is not even scoring. Since the Utah Jazz re-aligned their lineup on December 21, Kris Dunn has only scored in 2 of his 8 games but it is profitable to read the tea leaves with Vegas lines. There is a reason this line is basically a pick ‘em.
Dunn is set to face a Milwaukee Bucks team that has been terrible defending guards all season long and even though Damian Lillard and Cameron Payne are both out, whatever answers Milwaukee is going to have as replacements are not good enough to defend all 5 Jazz starters effectively. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez protecting the basket, it is going to be hard for top options like Lauri Markkanen and John Collins to finish at the basket — which means someone will have to step up and knock down a short jumper in the paint or a 3-ball early against drop coverage. That is exactly what Dunn’s role is as a starter; he has played at least 6 minutes in every single game as a starter and his solid perimeter defense gives him upside for up to 9 minutes. All we ask of him is 1 bucket.
