Ahaan Rungta
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Following a light day of NBA action with just 2 primetime games on Thursday, we are back with a 14-game slate on Friday with plenty of betting opportunities to navigate. We have gotten a head start on finding value among the huge assortment of options.
These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Friday, January 5.
Spencer Dinwiddie, SG, BKN, Over 13.5 points (-120)
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
There haven’t been too many starting players in the NBA more streaky this season than Brooklyn Nets point guard Spencer Dinwiddie. He has failed to clear this line in 4 of his last 5 games and this cold stretch includes a zero-point performance earlier this week. Tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder provides a sneaky spot for Dinwiddie to figure it out.
While Oklahoma City has some exceptional isolation defenders in Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, their defensive efforts are best utilized on drives from Mikal Bridges and finishes by Nicolas Claxton. That has made them one of the worst spot-up 3-point defenses in the league over the course of the season, which is good news for Dinwiddie’s playing style. His 1.5 threes line is heavily juiced to the over and he has scored at least 14 points in 13 of 20 games when he makes at least 2 triples.
Since the re-injury to Ben Simmons, Dinwiddie averages 13.2 points per 30 minutes when Claxton plays. In a 5.5-point spread with a high Vegas total (234), it is the right side to bet on Dinwiddie to at least somewhat break out of a slump and back his scoring.
Alperen Sengun, C, HOU, Under 22.5 points (-125)
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This line is the definition of a sell high. Sengun has cleared this line in 6 straight games but has done so via 60.0% from the field (at 54.7% on the season). Now the Houston Rockets’ starting center gets one of his toughest matchups in 2023-24. Since the return of Jaden McDaniels to the lineup, the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed the 12th-fewest restricted area field goals made per game and the 10th-lowest paint field-goal percentage. That is Sengun’s game; he relies on finishing near the basket. That will be tougher to do against Rudy Gobert and company.
Sengun’s points line has been sitting at 23.5 through a majority of his hot stretch but has been lowered in this one for good reason: he averages 21.9 points per 33 minutes on the season when Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. all start — making this line just a couple of points too high in this spot.
Marcus Smart, SG, MEM, Over 1.5 3-pointers (-125)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart has recently returned to active following a long injury stint and is coming off 3 straight games without hitting a 3-pointer. However, volume has not been an issue as he has attempted at least 4 shots from deep in each of the last 3 and has averaged 6.3 attempts per game since his return.
Tonight Smart gets a good matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. Since re-aligning their lineup a month ago, the Lakers have allowed the 6th-most corner 3s made per game and the 10th-most above-the-break 3s made per game. With all of their defensive attention on the drives of Ja Morant, the shooting prowess of Desmond Bane and the post-up game of Jaren Jackson Jr. in a game with a 4-point spread, Smart should once again get the minutes and looks to attempt at least 5 triples. Let’s bet on regression to the mean for a career 32% 3-point shooter to figure it out on Friday.
