Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After 2 big slates of NBA games since returning from all-star break, we get a much smaller pallet on Saturday — 6 in total with the Raptors and Pistons tipping off at noon ET. The game of the night is easily Boston vs Philadelphia in what could be an Eastern Conference Finals matchup. Denver and Memphis offer a similar level of star power and playoff possibility, but the diehard basketball fan in me loves watching games like Indiana vs Orlando.
Below are 4 player props ranging from 0.5U to 1.5U. Let’s take a look!
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Bojan Bogdanovic (DET) Over 20.5 points (-110)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Some bets are very straight forward and require little nuance to communicate: this is a great number against a solid matchup. Bogdanovic is averaging 22.7 ppg over the last 10, including a 33-point performance against Toronto on February 12. The Pistons are coming home after a 3-game road trip and Bogdanovic is averaging nearly +2 ppg better at home. The Raptors have given up the 7th-most ppg to opposing SFs on the season and 5th-most 3 pointers made per game to the same position. Yes, OG Anunoby is back and will likely matchup on Bogdanovic this time around, but in their first matchup on the year (w/ Anunoby) Bogdanovic finished with 18 on 6-of-10 shooting from the FT line (well below his 88% for the season). Getting a discounted line outweighs Anunoby’s presence in my opinion. 1U.
Paolo Banchero (ORL) Over 19.5 points (-106)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is an auto play for me whenever I see Banchero’s line dip below 20.5. He has hit this figure in 54% of games this season and his ability to attack the basket leads to 2 things I love when betting points bets: double-digit shot attempts with a higher FG% and free throws. The Pacers allow the 6th-most FTs per game to opposing teams and that number jumps to 3rd most when on the road. In Banchero’s only game against the Pacers this season, he had 23 points, and their guard heavy line up stands no chance against the rookie who wants to finish this rookie of the year campaign strong. Banchero’s February has been a struggle, but I’m big on the rookie bouncing back against Indiana tonight. 1.5U.
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Marcus Smart (BOS) Under 9.5 rebounds and assists (-125)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Smart finished with 8 RA in his first game back from all-star break in a game that totaled 280 points against the Pacers. Tonight’s matchup against the 76ers will be much lower scoring and slower in PACE. Defensively, he will have the tough task of slowing down James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, which could put him in foul trouble early (in PHI) and also keep him away from the basket and limit his rebound opportunities. The Celtics would be wise to continue rotating their PG group of Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White, not having Smart go full force on that ankle with 22 games to go. The 76ers have be one of the best teams this teams against PGs, allowing the 2nd-fewest rebounds and 5th-fewest assists per game. 0.5U.
Jordan Clarkson (UTA) Under 29.5 points and assists (-105)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Clarkson is only averaging 25 P+A per game for the season and in the last 10, so the number immediately caught my eye. Yes, the Spurs are a much inferior opponent, but I’m more liable to believe this ends in a blowout than a tightly contested game — limiting Clarkson’s minutes in the 4th quarter. Since the Conley trade, Clarkson is averaging 10 potential assists per game, but is making few passes in total (33 per game). It’s difficult to continue these assist numbers with so few passes compared to the rest of the team (Talen Horton-Tucker is at 44 passes made per game for reference). The Jazz have a logjam in the backcourt with Clarkson, Sexton and Dunn, while THT is leading the team with 11.3 potential assists per game since the Conley trade. Shockingly, the Spurs allow the 5th-fewest ppg to opposing PGs over the last 7. 1U.
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