Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NBA Thursday slate is smaller in volume (4 games) but has two great matchups in Bucks vs Grizzlies and Suns vs Clippers. The Clippers and Miami Heat are both on a back-to-back, which is worth mentioning. Jrue Holiday will be missing from the Bucks lineup tonight and the Miami Heat have more than half the team on the injury report. It will be interesting, but let’s see if we can find some value in the player prop market.
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Ja Morant (MEM) over 33.5 points + rebounds (-122)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Morant is averaging 33.5 PRA for the month of December and has seen his rebounds figures increase every month since the start of the season. The Bucks are allowing the 6th most RPG to opposing PGs over the last 7 games, and their rotations are in flux at the moment as they try to reintroduce Middleton into the lineup while dealing with Holiday out of the lineup. Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen pose little threat to Morant in halfcourt scoring situations, so I expect him to be more aggressive on the scoring side than looking to defend against a long frontcourt of Giannis, Lopez, and Portis. In one game against Milwaukee last season, Morant had 33 points and 8 rebounds against essentially the same squad.
Morant should be well rested having not played since December 9th, and when getting 3+ days rest, he’s averaging 35P+6R. In defensive situations, Morant can take advantage of Jevon Carter and give himself more rebound opportunities than normal as Carter is averaging a pedestrian 9PPG as a starter and 3FGA per game in catch and shoot situations. 1U
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