On the heels of the “valley-oop” that gave the Suns the win in Game 2, the Clippers bounced back with a strong showing to take Game 3. Now with the Suns holding a 2-1 series lead, both teams will undoubtedly view Game 4 as a must-win. As always, there are plenty of player props to chose from, but don’t forget to make sure you check out how our analysts are picking sides and totals for tonight’s game.
It becomes increasingly more difficult to find value in player props as playoff rounds trudge on. However, with one of the Suns’ stars just getting acclimated to the series, I’m finding some value on the over of two of his stat lines.
Chris Paul over 27.5 points + assists (-125)
Lines available at time of publishing. Playable up to over 28.5. Up to over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists also playable.
What a few weeks it’s been for the Suns point guard. Back from his two game absence while in COVID protocols, Paul seemed somewhat rusty in Game 3. That being said, I see Game 4 as a prime bounce-back spot.
Scoring
On the scoring front, Paul shot 5-19 from the field on Thursday, including 5-16 on open shots. Seeing those numbers bring two thoughts to mind. Firstly, Paul is a good bet to regress towards his shooting mean. In the playoffs, he’s shooting 47%, and 49% on open attempts. In the regular season, he shot 20-38 versus the Clippers. He’s very unlikely to repeat on his 26% shooting performance.
And secondly, and perhaps more importantly, he had 16 open attempts – that’s a wildly high number. His biggest pitfall was shooting 1-7 when defended by Clippers center Ivica Zubac, mainly on switches in the pick and roll. The Wake Forrest alum shot over 52% on attempts off the pick and roll this season. To me, despite the poor shooting game, I love that Paul was actively looking for his shot, and getting a ton of open looks.
Assists
Despite his shot not falling in Game 3, Paul continued his playoff passing clinic with a 12 assist effort. The Point God has been a maestro with putting his teammates in position to score. Since the Lakers series (and seemingly fully healed from his shoulder injury), Paul has averaged 18.8 potential assists per game, converting those chances at a 56% rate. With both his usage and minutes skewing positively (more on that below), the lead guard is a great bet to hit double digit dimes once again.
Added Factors
Paul’s backup and playoff revelation, Cam Payne, left Game 3 with an injury. The Suns are hopeful for him to play, but he’d likely be limited if he does suit up. In his absence Paul saw 39 minutes of action, with the Suns hesitant to hand the reigns over to their other reserve guards.
Another intriguing variable is Devin Booker’s struggles. After breaking his nose in Game 2, he was seemingly uncomfortable wearing a mask. With the All-Star only shooting 10-37 in the last two games, the injury could be affecting him. Booker’s continued struggles could be short lived, but he did see his usage dip (and Paul’s usage jump) in Game 3. It’s not something to hang your hat on, but definitely worth monitoring.
Conclusion
All this being said, Paul is in a prime spot to put together a big Game 4. Chalk his poor shooting Game 3 up to rust after a prolonged absence, or just a bad game. But as they have all postseason, the Suns will lean on Paul to right the ship. I have the sixteen year veteran projected at 30+ points plus assists against his former team.
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