Filip Tomic
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We have a potential NBA Finals preview in Denver as the Boston Celtics come to town. The night tips off in Dallas, where the Mavericks host the Miami Heat at 7:30 pm ET, followed by the Celtics vs Nuggets clash at Ball Arena. Continue reading below to see my +861 odds NBA mega parlay!
Also, visit our NBA picks page for predictions on the side and total for Thursday’s games.
Now let’s dive into my bet!
Timberwolves vs Pacers Over 228 (-112)
Heat ML (+166)
Celtics -1 (-110)
NBA parlay odds: +861
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Indiana Pacers Over 228 (-112)
Be sure to prepare your popcorn, because this will be a fun one to watch. The first meeting between the Wolves and Pacers saw 236 points back in mid-December and these 2 teams have averaged 234.5 points per game between them over the last 10 meetings. With Indiana hosting this game, I think it will be the one to take on the initiative and dictate the tempo. In 32 games at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season, the Pacers have cashed on the over 20 times — which is one of the more consistent rates in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are one of the stronger defenses in the NBA but they, too, have favored the over in their road games this season. In 31 away games they are 18-13 on the O/U. This game will mark a start of a 6-game road trip for them and it will be anything but easy against the Pacers. Indy ranks 2nd in pace this year, averaging 102.5 possessions per game. Defense also isn’t a priority; the Pacers have allowed 120, 117, 129 and 130 points in 4 of their last 5 games. I’ll gladly take the over.
Miami Heat ML over Dallas Mavericks (+166)
Next up in this parlay I have the Heat winning on the road in Dallas. With 7 wins in their last 8 games, the Heat have clearly flipped the switch and will be in playoff mode the rest of the season. Jimmy Butler and company mean business; they have covered in 7 straight games on the road, plus they’re 5-1 SU in 6 games against West opponents. In head-to-head meetings they have beaten the Mavs 14 times out of the 20 and they are also 9-3 ATS in the last 12.
The past couple of weeks have been tough on the Mavericks. They have simply disappeared defensively, allowing 120+ in 5 straight games — so it’s no wonder they are just 1-5 SU in their last 6 outings. Until they turn things around and go back to being the team that went on that 7-game winning streak before the all-star break, I am not trusting them. Eastern Conference teams have beaten them in 4 of their last 5 games, as well, and the Warriors and Lakers are slowly creeping up behind them in the Western Conference standings. The last 2 H2H meetings in Miami have been split between the two teams, so the Heat more than capable of winning this game.
Read our full Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks predictions
Boston Celtics -1 over Denver Nuggets (-110)
And, finally, we have the biggest game of the night between 2 of the best from the Eastern and Western Conferences. Both the Celtics and Nuggets lost in their last outings as huge favorites, so this game is a perfect opportunity for them to make amends. Denver was actually the first team to beat the Celtics at home this season when the 2 teams met in the latter stages of January at TD Garden. Don’t underestimate the revenge factor for Boston.
The Celtics have had the edge in head-to-head meetings, winning 6 of the last 8, plus they are 6-3 ATS in the last 9 against the defending champions. Jaylen Brown is on the injury report with a tailbone issue, but even if he doesn’t play it shouldn’t be a problem. Boston has won all 5 games when Brown sits out; a healthy combo of Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis is more than capable of making up for his absence. All in all, I’m expecting a tight finish — but I think the Celtics will be more motivated to prove their doubters wrong after having their 11-game win streak snapped by Cleveland earlier this week. Let’s roll with Boston.
