Filip Tomic
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Having just two games on the NBA schedule isn’t ideal from a betting standpoint, but that hasn’t stopped me coming up with another mega parlay to spice things up a little. The action in Miami tips off at 7:30 pm ET on NBA TV, followed by the OKC Thunder and Golden State Warriors at 10:00 pm ET.
You can read our NBA predictions but now let’s dive into my parlay:
Miami Heat -4 (-112)
Nets vs Heat Under 217 points (-110)
Golden State Warriors ML (+128)
Parlay odds: +713
Miami Heat -4 (-112)
To start things off I have the Miami Heat covering as 4-point favorites against the Nets. One streak will have to give in tonight’s matchup. After a sluggish 1-4 start to their season, the Heat are currently on a 6-game win streak, however Brooklyn has won their last 5 head-to-head. This will be the 2nd meeting of the season after the Nets won 109-105 two weeks ago, but a lot has changed since.
Miami’s streak has them top of the Southeast Division standings. Losing leading scorer Tyler Herro didn’t have as much of a negative effect as some people thought it would. Instead, Bam Adebayo has upped his game and is averaging 23 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. His production could be crucial tonight as the Nets aren’t really deep at the center position. I really like Miami to continue rolling.
Under 217 points in Nets vs Heat (-110)
I do not expect a high-scoring game in Miami. These teams play a similar style, ranking 17th and 18th in pace and averaging under 100 possessions per game. The first meeting finished with just 214 points scored, the oddsmakers have raised the projected total to 217 for tonight’s match-up. In their last 3 games the Heat are scoring just 10.7 threes per game, which ranks them in the bottom 6 of the NBA during that stretch. Shooting from distance isn’t a strength of this team and they connected on just 8 threes in their win over Charlotte.
That’s the beauty of Miami Heat basketball. Unlike most teams, they like to rely on defense to get wins. They have the 8th best defensive rating, with teams scoring just 109.8 points per game against them. In home games they are 1-3 on the O/U, while for the season the under has already cashed 7 times in 11 games. The Nets are also 2-3 O/U in away games, and 8 of their last 11 played in November have cashed on the under. With just 1 of the last 4 meetings in Miami finishing with more than 217 points, I think backing the under is the best bet.
Golden State Warriors ML (+128)
To cap things off I have the underdog Warriors to win at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder. It has been a turbulent couple of days for Golden State, to say the least. Draymond Green just got handed a 5-game suspension for his altercation with Rudy Gobert in the loss to Minnesota. They’ll also be without Stephen Curry, who will miss yet another game with his knee injury, so things aren’t trending in the direction they were hoping for. However, we’ve seen quite a few instances already this season where teams lift themselves up when adversity hits and I expect the Warriors to do that.
Golden State is 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings, outscoring the Thunder by almost 14 points on average during that run. They’re shooting over 51% from the field in those games, as good as the Warriors offense is, I think that has to do more with the Thunder lack of awareness on the defensive end. Klay Thompson also got ejected in that game against Minnesota, so he should at least be fresh for this one. With their leading scorer out of the mix, I expect the Warriors to turn to Thompson. They are outmanned, but with the home crowd cheering them on I wouldn’t write them off so easily.
