Filip Tomic
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The moment we’ve all been waiting for is finally here as the NBA postseason tips-off! On Saturday we have a total of 4 games, starting as early as 1 pm ET. I’ve settled for 3 teams in my first NBA Playoffs Mega Parlay, continue reading below to see who I am backing.
Head over to our NBA picks page for predictions on the side and total for Saturday’s games.
Now let’s dive into my bet!
MIN Timberwolves -2 (-110)
NY Knicks -2.5 (-110)
LA Lakers ML (+245)
Parlay odds: +1157
MIN Timberwolves -2 over PHX Suns (-110)
Minnesota worked really hard to get to where they ended the regular season and despite finishing 3rd in the West they are still overlooked by many people. At home the Timberwolves have 30 wins in 41 games, plus only the Celtics and Thunder have a better Net Rating in home games this season. This is the coming out party for Anthony Edwards as well, the Suns were able to shut him down in the 3 regular season meetings, so there’s a huge chip on his shoulder to do well here.
Look, there’s a reason why Minnesota finished 3rd and that’s their defense. They’ve held opponents to 108.4 points per 100 possessions this season, the gap between them and the 2nd best team (Boston) is 2.2 points, which is also the difference between the 2nd and 10th best teams on that list. I’ll take the Timberwolves to open the postseason with a home win here.
NY Knicks -2.5 over PHI 76ers (-110)
In a battle of two teams struggling with injuries all year long, the Knicks will look to translate their regular season dominance onto the postseason here. New York won 3 of the 4 meetings, in convincing fashion by 36, 14 and 27 points. The games played in this series will probably be a lot tighter and that’s where the Knicks have the edge. They’ve won a higher percentage of clutch games this season, plus they have Jalen Brunson who has earned an All-NBA spot this season.
Joel Embiid is back and despite the dominant stats he posted towards the end of the regular season, we saw in the play-in game vs Miami that he’s not the pre-injury Embiid just yet. The Knicks are also 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games, plus they’ve won 11 of 13 games vs Atlantic Division teams as well. I have them limiting Embiid’s production here and opening this series with an important home win.
LA Lakers ML over DEN Nuggets (+245)
I might still be under the influence of just how great the Lakers looked in their last 2 games vs New Orleans, but I really believe they could steal one of the first two games on the road in this series. Yes, the Nuggets have dominated the head-to-head match-up and it’s been 490 days since LA beat them in a game, but I’m expecting a competitive series this time around.
D’Angelo Russell has drastically improved compared to last season, he could be the key difference in this series. Jamal Murray also isn’t at 100%, perhaps the Lakers can take advantage of that and surprise Denver in the opener. LA is 12-3 SU in their last 15 games overall, they’ve also won 6 straight road games and covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games played on a Saturday. Nuggets are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 vs West teams, I’ll take the Lakers here.
