Filip Tomic
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Only the New Orleans Pelicans let down our NBA mega parlay last night, but with a 4-game slate on Monday we have a chance to redeem ourselves. Tonight’s bet includes a couple of over/unders combined with a big underdog on the money line. You can check out our NBA picks for today’s matchups, but for now, let’s get into today’s NBA mega parlay.
Raptors vs Pacers Over 246 (-110)
Pistons vs Knicks Over 223 (-110)
Heat ML (+240)
NBA parlay odds: +1139
Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers Over 246 (-110)
To start our NBA mega parlay, we have the high-flying Raptors and Pacers going at it for the 3rd time this season. The first 2 meetings finished with 253 and 252 points, so I’m quite confident in them going over tonight’s projected total. Toronto has put up 123 and 121 points in their 2 games since the season restarted and Indiana has done even better with 129 and 133 points. The Pacers will also be playing their 2nd game in 24 hours, which should see defense take more of a backseat as a result.
Looking at the trends for both teams, we can notice the Raptors cashing on the over in their last 5 road games. For the season they are 20-9 on the O/U away from home, and the biggest reason for this is their defense, or the lack of one. Only the Pistons and Jazz have a worse defensive rating in road games this season, as the Raptors are allowing a whopping 120.3 points per 100 possessions. For a team like the Pacers, who are 19-11 on the O/U in home games, this is really good news. They can play an up-tempo style here, just like they do in most of their games. I’m expecting a ton of points here, so let’s back the over.
Read our full Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers predictions
Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks Over 223 (-110)
The defensive decline of the New York Knicks has been hard to watch over their last 10 games. One of the better teams in the NBA on that end has dropped all the way down to 27th in defensive rating, allowing opponents to score 119.6 points per 100 possessions. For comparison, in January they were allowing just 104.4 points, which led the NBA by a wide margin. Injuries have slowed this team down as Julius Randle and OG Anunoby remain out of the lineup indefinitely.
With just 1 win in their last 6 games, I’m not comfortable backing the Knicks to cover as 11-point favorites here. Instead, I believe their defensive issues make backing the over a better option. The last 4 of 5 meetings between them and the Pistons have cashed the over. Detroit has put up solid numbers offensively in their 2 games since the all-star break, and it’s also worth noting that the first meeting of the season between the 2 teams finished with 230 points scored and was also played at Madison Square Garden. Let’s go with the points.
Miami Heat ML over Sacramento Kings (+240)
I am genuinely surprised we are getting odds this high for a Miami Heat road victory here. This might be due to Jimmy Butler missing this game through suspension, but the Heat are pretty much used to not having their best player this season. Butler has missed a total of 18 games this year and his team has won 11 of those, including 4 of the last 5. The Heat have had the Kings’ number for quite some time now, winning 5 of the last 7 meetings, including the first game of the season between the 2 teams about a month ago, which finished 115-106.
Sacramento did celebrate an unlikely win last night on the road against the Clippers, so they’ll be playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. They’re only a .500 team in this situation this season, so they could run into some difficulties in tonight’s matchup. This team has let down a lot of bettors this season in home games, covering just 11 times in their last 25 games at the Golden 1 Center. I am going with the more rested team here, so let’s back the Heat to win this one outright.
Target our expert’s best NBA player prop bets for today — he has a 37-23 record this season!
