Germantas Kneita
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Merry Christmas from myself and the Pickswise family. Things have been fairly turbulent in the NBA over the last month but we are still getting a full 5-game slate tonight. I have picked out my favorite players prop for each of the contests which you can check out below. As always do not forget to check out our full game previews here and be sure to have a look at our same game parlays too. But for now, let’s take a look at my selections for today.
Jaylen Brown over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-122)
Since coming back into the fold for the Boston Celtics this month, Jaylen Brown has been on fire. He has recorded a combined 32 points, rebounds and assists in 4 of the 5 games that he has played in. He has scored 30 or more points in each of his last 2 games and has managed at least 9 combined rebounds on assists in 5 straight contests.
Brown certainly seems like the type of player who will embrace the occasion here. He has attempted 20 or more field goals in 3 straight games and it would be a surprise if that drops off here. Jayson Tatum is likely to be guarded by Khris Middleton today which would leave Pat Connaughton to pick up Brown. With Brown being the bigger player, it should make it easier for him to get off his shots and grab rebounds.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks.
Mitchell Robinson over 7.5 rebounds (-120)
Mitchell Robinson has been consistent in collecting rebounds so far this month, having managed to grab 8 or more in 7 of the 11 games he has appeared in. With the Hawks tendency to have a traditional center on the floor at all times, Robinson should see enough playing time to help him achieve this total. Without Clint Capela in the team, the Hawks will be relying on and Gorgui Dieng on the interior, who is far from a dominant rebounder. He has just 1 season in his career of averaging more than 8 boards per game.
The absence of Tray Young should benefit him too here as we will likely see a reduction in the number of long 3-pointers here which can be hard for centers to rebound. Robinson should matchup well with the Hawks here and with the rim protection he provides, minutes should not be an issue. If he plays 25 minutes or so, the rebounds will come.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks.
Deandre Ayton over 16.5 points (+100)
This will be the 3rd meeting between the Warriors and the Suns, with Ayton being absolutely dominant in the previous games. He is averaging 23.5 points per game against them and looks set to have another strong showing here. The Suns big man has managed to score 17 or more points in 6 of the 9 games this month including his last 2 games. It is hard to see that streak end here.
The Warriors simply do not have anyone to matchup against the center. Kevon Looney does have the size required but the Warriors normally do not trust him to play much more than 20 minutes per night. Instead Draymond Green sees time as the center in small ball lineups, allowing Ayton to dominate the paint with his size. He should be able to do that once more here.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns.
Patty Mills over 2.5 rebounds (-115)
Patty Mills is known for a lot of things, with rebounding not being high on that list. However, there is great value in this line tonight. With the Nets currently missing several players to health and safety protocols, Mills have been asked to play a bigger role than usual. He is playing 35.6 minutes a night this month and has surpassed the 40-minute mark in 2 of his last 3 games.
Mills has also seen his rebounding numbers increase in 4 straight games, cumulating in a 6-rebound effort in his last contest. Whilst he seems unlikely to improve on this, the minutes he is bound to get plus the fact that he has hit this over 4 games in a row should bode well for him doing it once more here.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Brooklyn Nets vs Los Angeles Lakers.
Dorian Finney-Smith over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113)
The Mavericks are shorthanded at the moment as players like Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. are listed out of tonight’s game. On top of that, Kristaps Porzingis is questionable to play. The result of this is their role players being handed more responsibility, with Dorian Finney-Smith likely to benefit from this.
The forward has already been able to record double digit points in 5 straight games, with at least 6 combined rebounds and assists in each contest. As a result, he has been able to hit this line on 4 occasions over that stretch. The Jazz will have a major advantage on the interior in Rudy Gobert tonight. The Mavericks as a result could look to attack them in transition as well as crashing the glass as a team to prevent Gobert from dominating them. Both of these factors should help Finney-Smith get his numbers tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz.
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