As we’re now firmly embedded in the month of April, the MLB season is in full swing. In typical Tuesday fashion, almost all teams are in action today, with fourteen games on the schedule. Baseball brings bettors so many different ways to wager on the game — if you’re looking at sides and totals, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks.
As my twitter handle suggests, I only stick to props. And with baseball, I mainly focus on pitcher strikeouts. Last season, albeit significantly shorter than usual, I compiled a 98-67 record (59%). I’m excited to build on that this year.
If you’re new to betting strikeout props, you will see that these lines are extremely sensitive, due to the low totals. Action either way can change a price significantly, rendering the prop unplayable. For the plays I write up, I will provide the lines at the time of publishing. However, if anything, I will provide my analysis and reasoning, in an effort to help bettors reach their own conclusions on bets they are pondering.
Enough housekeeping — let’s get to my two favorite plays for today.
Chris Bassitt (OAK) under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Line available at publishing.
The Opening Day starter for the Athletics takes the mound for his second start tonight versus the Dodgers. Coming off a strong 2020 campaign, Bassitt was less than stellar in his first start versus the Astros, allowing three runs in 5.1 innings, only recording three strikeouts. Primarily known more for inducing soft contact than missing bats, Bassitt in his career averages less than a strikeout per inning.
The Oakland pitcher, tonight, faces one of the toughest lineups in baseball — the reigning World Series-winning Dodgers. One of the best teams at making contact with pitches last season, the Dodgers swung and missed at the fifth-lowest rate, and struck out only 8.2 times per game (good for the seventh least). In their first five games this season, Los Angeles seems poised to replicate last year’s success at the plate, with the sixth-best contact rate thus far.
This doesn’t bode well for Bassitt, who only missed seven bats on 35 swings in his first start (20% whiff rate, well below average). Last year, he allowed contact at the 29th highest rate (out of 101 qualifying pitchers). With the Dodgers swinging a hot bat, I like them to continue to make contact versus Oakland’s ace. I have Bassitt projected at four strikeouts, making this a nice play at plus odds.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Line available at publishing.
Get to know the name already if you’re unaware — Alcantara is quietly developing into one of the better pitchers in the game. He pitched to a 3.00 ERA last season, his third straight season staying under 4.00. The Marlins’ Opening Day starter stifled the reigning AL pennant-winning Rays to the tune of six scoreless innings and seven strikeouts. After racking up 27 strikeouts in only 20 innings this spring, Alcantara flashed his improved slider to pair with his high 90s fastball. Versus the Rays, Alcantara induced 15 swing and misses.
In the young season thus far, Alcantara’s matchup tonight, the Cardinals, have come out swinging. St. Louis’ batters have struck out 9+ times in each of the last three games versus starting pitchers less effective than the Marlins ace. The Cardinals are currently putting the ball in play at the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
Alcantara should continue to flash his plus arsenal tonight. I have the Marlins righty projected at seven strikeouts.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins.
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