Javan Shouey
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All 30 MLB teams are once again in action following yesterday’s highly entertaining slate. With numerous interesting matchups, there is an abundance of betting angles in the market today. My favorite play on the slate is centered around once again backing the league’s best offense, the Atlanta Braves. Let’s dive in!
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Cal Quantrill (CLE) over 5.5 hits allowed (-140)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Would scale down to win 0.75U once at -155 odds or longer.
Cal Quantrill is someone who has overperformed his expected metrics for each of the last 3 seasons, but this year his struggles are shown on the surface level. The right-hander is having by far his worst season as a pro, allowing a 6.18 ERA with a 5.99 xERA. Quantrill has never been a high strikeout rate arm and his rate has fallen even further this year. His 12.3% K% is the product of a 25th percentile chase rate and 4th percentile whiff rate. A zone contact rate 4.3% higher than league average and a chase contact rate 16.1% higher than league average has resulted in a ton of balls in play. With that high rate of contact against him, Quantrill only averages 3.76 pitches per plate appearance, the 29th fewest among 105 qualified pitchers. This allows him to face more batters which obviously increases the chances for more hits.
Not only does Quantrill allow a ton of contact, but the quality of contact allowed is the worst of his career. The right-hander ranks 4th percentile with a .296 xBA. His xSLG, hard-hit rate, ground ball rate, and barrel rate are all career worst marks as well. Despite multiple walks issued in each of his last 2 starts, Quantrill would still prefer to live in the zone and force you to beat him with the bat than hand out free passes. His matchup today couldn’t be tougher than it is. The Atlanta Braves are baseball’s best offense, and their entire lineup is filled with batters able to carry them for a night. On a normal night Atlanta rolls out 6 All-Stars including the top 5 in the order, as well as last season’s NL ROY and 2 more power threats on pace for upwards of 25 home runs. Their backup catcher is among the best hitters at his position in the sport, and yesterday when Sean Murphy sat, they didn’t miss a beat, scoring 4 runs against Shane Bieber. They were no-hit for the first 3 innings but still managed 6 hits against Bieber despite 4 walks as well. Bieber is not his former self, but is still a far better option than Quantrill.
In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Atlanta ranks 1st in AVG (.307), SLG (.583), ISO (.277), wOBA (.403), and hard-hit rate (41.0%.) Quantrill’s main 2 pitches, his sinker and cutter, account for 74.4% of his pitches. They allow respective xBA’s of .310 and .303, and Atlanta should be able to time his pitches well as one of the league’s premier fastball hitting teams. Against right-handed cutters specifically Atlanta ranks 1st in both SLG and wOBA while 7th in xBA. Quantrill only faced 19 batters across 73 pitches in his last outing, his first since returning from the IL. While the short workload is nearly 16 pitches fewer than his season average, it was likely due to performance and not health. With Cleveland’s bullpen being relatively taxed from previous days, having Quantrill at least enter the 6th inning should be their goal. Look for the lethal Braves bats to get to Quantrill for 6 or more hits, something he has allowed in 9 of his 12 starts this season.
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