Javan Shouey
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The weekend is here, and MLB has rewarded us with a full 15-game slate. Fantastic pitching matchups such as Hunter Brown vs Nathan Eovaldi, MacKenzie Gore vs Zack Wheeler, and Tyler Glasnow vs George Kirby highlight the slate, but my focus for this article is elsewhere. Tyler Anderson has struggled during his first season with the Los Angeles Angels, and I am looking for his issues to continue today. Let’s dive in!
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Tyler Anderson (LAA) over 5.5 hits allowed (-129)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has not performed to the level they hoped he would when signing him away from the crosstown Dodgers this offseason. The left-hander has a 5.54 ERA with a 5.52 xFIP, 4.68 FIP, and 5.28 SIERA through his first 14 starts. Anderson has allowed 6 or more hits in only 8 of those starts, but 5 or more in 12/14 so he is usually very close even on the misses. In tonight’s matchup, I have reason to believe a ton of contact is made, and that 6 or more hits off Anderson is highly achievable.
The southpaw has allowed a .283 opponent batting average this season while ranking just 22nd percentile in xBA and 38th percentile in xSLG. Left-handed batters are hitting .250 against him, but right-handers have a .292 average across 226 AB. Arizona is likely to roll out 7 right-handed batters tonight. The Diamondbacks rank 7th in batting average this season against left-handed pitching, while having numerous quality producers. Ketel Marte, Emmanuel Rivera, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Gabriel Moreno and Geraldo Perdomo all have a .310 AVG or higher against southpaw pitching this season. Evan Longoria (.288) and Christian Walker (.265) are also key contributors. Corbin Carroll is among the NL MVP frontrunners but is currently listed day-to-day with his shoulder. That same shoulder has been operated on in the past, so Arizona could be cautious with his return. I don’t expect him in the lineup tonight, but given his clearance and day-to-day status, there is a chance he could go which would give this bet even more value.
Anderson throws his 89.7 MPH 4-seam fastball 35.6% of the time while opponents have posted a .284 AVG and .600 SLG against it. Arizona ranks 6th in xBA and 13th in wOBA against left-handed 4-seam fastballs this season. Against left-handed changeups, Anderson’s main secondary offering, Arizona ranks 4th in both wOBA and xBA while 6th in SLG. The lefty throws that pitch 33.5% of the time, a very high usage rate for a changeup in today’s game. Against right-handed bats that usage spikes to an arsenal high 40.7% rate. Opponents are hitting .312 against that pitch this season, and with Arizona’s success against that offering Anderson could be in for a long day. There should be a ton of balls in play in this matchup as Arizona ranks 3rd in chase contact rate, 3rd in zone contact rate, and have the league’s lowest swinging strike rate in the last 30 days.
The veteran pitcher is also likely to have a long workload with his outs recorded prop having heavy juice towards the over on a 17.5 line. With 6 innings of work, we would only need 1 base knock per inning and Anderson is allowing 1.09 hits per inning this season regardless of matchup. His last 2 starts were somewhat better in terms of results, but they were against the Rockies and Royals, teams that rank 29th and 28th in wRC+ against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days. I look for Arizona to make solid contact against Anderson in this spot.
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