Diving into the MLB April 11th slate, I’m very excited about two very different props that I think both have an excellent chance of hitting, one coming from baseball’s brightest star and one from an undervalued RHP.
Mike Trout Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBI’s (-115)
The Angels offensive success has been one of the biggest stories of the MLB season thus far, with Trout leading the way. The generational superstar is hitting a stunning .414 through 9 games, recording 3 HR’s in the process. He gets perhaps his best matchup of the season today, against a terrible pitcher in Tanner Roark who was shelled by the lifeless Texas Rangers last week. Roark has carried a 4.64 xFIP and 5.84 xFIP over the last two seasons and has started this one with a lovely 6.55. I expect no positive regression from him against an Angels lineup that has generated the 5th best wOBA in baseball against RHP. LA is rolling out their best lineup, with Fletcher, Ohtani, and Walsh hitting on either side of Trout.
This should provide the slugger with plenty of RBI and run opportunities. I would not be surprised to see Trout go deep today, as he ranks in the top-3 percentile in HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and practically every other offensive metric in baseball. With the Angels looking for a bounceback after a drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays last night, they’ll turn to the heart of their order to produce and lead the way. Trout is well positioned contribute at least one hit as well as a run and RBI given his entrenchment in the Angels order and their expected run total of 5.3.
German Marquez Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
This play may come off as bizarre or niche, but I believe Marquez has a strong chance of staying under the number today as he pitches away from Coors Field for the first time this season. Marquez has typically been significantly better on the road than at home, notably in 2020 where he posted a wOBA against of .330 at home and .258 on the road, as well as an AVG-against of .296 at home vs .201 on the road. With this in mind, I also love his matchup. San Francisco has struggled significantly against RHP, producing a wOBA of just .264 (24th in MLB).
They have generated more than 5 hits against a SP zero times over their last 6 games, and only twice for the season, both against lefties. This may seem like a prop with high potential for variance, but I think the line is set more than a hit too high, with Marquez’s strong track record on the road combined with San Francisco’s tepid offense leaving him in a very optimistic position for a good start.
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