Javan Shouey
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Thanks to a doubleheader between the Royals and White Sox, Wednesday’s MLB action features 16 games and plenty of betting angles to attack. For today’s MLB props article, I am targeting the offense of a team that has had great success for us over the past few seasons in the Atlanta Braves. You can also check out our MLB picks for today’s matchups, but for now, let’s get into my best MLB prop bet of the day.
Atlanta Braves team total over 4.5 (-128)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
I bet on the Braves to score 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings of yesterday’s game, but Atlanta failed to do so, scoring just 1 run on a solo home run from Orlando Arcia within that 5-inning span. They did score 5 runs in the final 4 frames to clear their full game team total, however, and today we get an even more inviting price. Ozzie Albies missed yesterday’s game and will be held out from action with his broken toe once again today. Still, this Braves lineup possesses more than enough talent to warrant this bet, in my opinion.
Atlanta has crushed right-handed pitching so far this season, hitting a league-best .315 and posting a 143 wRC+. Today they get J.P. France, who is someone I have often tried betting against in the past. I faded France in his last start, a rematch matchup against a tough Rangers offense, and he was shelled, surrendering 8 hits, 4 walks, a home run, and 8 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. France has now allowed 3, 3, and 8 earned runs to begin his 2024 season with 22 hits and 7 walks allowed across just 15.1 combined innings. While his off-speed pitches have found more success, France has allowed a ton of damage on his 4-seam fastball and cutter, the 2 pitches he most often uses.
The right-hander struggles to keep the ball on the ground, generating just a 28.7% ground ball rate through 3 outings, an 8th percentile mark. He is a low strikeout rate arm that doesn’t generate many whiffs or chases, and the Braves have done a solid job making contact this season, registering the 8th-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. France struggles against left-handed hitting which is especially worrisome against Matt Olson and Michael Harris III. He also tends to pitch worse at home, posting a 4.52 ERA through 69.2 home innings over the last 2 seasons.
Atlanta averages a league-best 6.44 runs per game this season, and when on the road that average jumps to 6.60. With all 9 innings locked in to hit as the road team, Atlanta should find numerous innings with guys on base, especially considering the poor play from the Astros’ bullpen so far this season. Houston relievers rank 28th in ERA, 24th in FIP, 24th in SIERA, 24th in WHIP and 24th in K-BB%. The Braves have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of 16 games this season, and the Astros have allowed 5 or more in 12 of their 19 games played.
Read our full Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros predictions
