Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Saturday’s MLB slate has all 30 teams scheduled, including some very interesting matchups. Playoff positioning is becoming more important as the season winds down, and we should have a very entertaining group of games this afternoon and evening. My favorite prop bet for today is in the Padres at Astros game, and make sure to check out all of our MLB predictions for today.
With the NFL season on the horizon, there has never been a better time to sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can bet $5 and receive $200 in bonus bets plus $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Take advantage of FanDuel’s new customer offer by clicking this link.
Cristian Javier (HOU) under 15.5 outs recorded (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130 odds.
Cristian Javier began the season well for Houston, posting a 2.90 ERA with a 17.8% K-BB% in his first 14 starts. His 35.3% hard-hit rate in that stretch of games was an above average mark, and he was providing the Astros with quality innings. He did have some troubling underlying metrics in that span, however, with his 4.35 SIERA signifying possible regression. Javier has indeed regressed, and his last 12 starts have been rather worrisome for Astros fans. The right-hander has seen his hard-hit rate rise 5.6% while his K% has fallen 4.6% and his BB% has jumped 6.2% in those last 12 outings. His 7.15 ERA, 6.45 FIP, and 5.71 SIERA are all amongst the worst marks in the league during this stretch, and he has thrown 5 or fewer innings of work in 9 of those outings.
On the season, Javier has had trouble getting ahead early in counts. His 54.7% first pitch strike rate sets him behind more than the league average rate, and his overall 46.6% zone rate is also well below league average. This leads to a ton of long counts, and on the season, his 4.20 pitches per plate appearance ranks 3rd most among qualified pitchers. In 6 starts since August began, Javier has seen his opponents for an average of 4.43 pitches/PA. A 1.62 WHIP in the last 12 starts is turning those long counts into long innings with his inability to get out of jams easily. Part of the reason he has struggled in that department this season is his decreased swinging strike rate. Javier posted a remarkable 33.2% K% last season thanks to a 13.8% swinging strike rate. His swinging strike rate this season is down to 11.1%, and 10.7% over the last 12 starts.
Javier also doesn’t generate many ground balls with his 26.5% fly ball rate sitting 1st percentile in MLB. When sporting a 10.0%-barrel rate that rate of fly balls can quickly become problematic, and Javier has allowed at least 1 home run in 7 straight starts, and 10 of his last 11. The Padres do hit into more ground balls than league average, but they are also an extremely patient group, ranking towards the top of the leaderboards in walks and pitches per plate appearance. In the last 30 days overall, San Diego has the 3rd lowest swing rate in the sport. They have the 3rd lowest chase rate with the 5th highest chase contact rate, and their in-zone contact rate is the 9th highest in that stretch. The matchup isn’t easy for Javier, and Houston also has no reason to overextend him with an almost entirely rested bullpen behind him.
Don’t miss today’s +1002 MLB mega parlay
Baltimore Orioles team total over 4.5 (+100)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -115 odds.
Chris Sale remains a good pitcher, but I am picking on him once again in this matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have been mashing left-handed pitching and in the last 30 days rank 5th in AVG and 10th in wOBA with a 122 wRC+. They are also very familiar with today’s opponent, as active Oriole batters have a combined 155 PA against the veteran left-hander. In those 155 PA, they have a .295 batting average and .500 SLG with 7 home runs. Numerous different batters have produced in this matchup, and as a team they have gotten to Sale twice already this season. Granted both matchups were in April, but it felt as though the Orioles knew what pitch was coming before he even threw the ball. Baltimore held Sale to only 8 combined innings in those 2 matchups, racking up 16 hits and 12 earned runs against him in that time. While I don’t expect an outright implosion from the southpaw, I do like Baltimore’s offensive outlook in this game.
Since returning from the IL, Sale has worked his pitch count back up, and in his last start he reached the 100-pitch threshold. It appears as though he is rounding into health, but health with Chris Sale seems to come and go from an outing-to-outing basis. Since his return, the lefty has posted a solid 3.64 FIP and 4.18 ERA, but those aren’t numbers that scare me away. His 10.1%-barrel rate and 8.1% BB% in that mark are not the greatest run prevention measures. Despite having his pitch count back up to 100, he only completed 5 innings of work in that outing, facing 19 batters in that span. He has yet to face more than 23 batters since May 20, and if overextended today, we could see issues the third time through the order.
Baltimore’s run-scoring chances are likely to increase once Sale exits the game, as the Red Sox bullpen has been highly exploitable in the last 30 days. In that span, they rank 21st in ERA, 19th in FIP, and 25th in WHIP. The backend arms are available if they have a lead in that stage of the game, but I expect runs from Baltimore in the later innings. Baltimore also benefits from being the road team with all 9 innings to bat locked in. Not only does that raise their floor, but playing in Fenway Park with favorable hitting conditions also raises their ceiling. Ballpark Pal is projecting Fenway for a 22% boost in extra-base hits and a 14% boost in overall run scoring. Look for the Orioles to build off their 11-run output in game 1 of the series and score 5 or more runs for their 7th straight game.
If you’re looking for a sportsbook with the best odds around, then Betway is the one for you. Click here to sign up now and get up to $250 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses!
Logan Webb (SF) over 5.5 strikeouts (-117)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Also fine with under 2.5 earned runs -125 or better.
Logan Webb draws a very favorable matchup today, on paper. The Colorado Rockies offense has long been boosted by their home games being played in the most hitter-friendly environment in the league. This has resulted in drastic home and road splits for years now, but the 2023 version of the Rockies is taking things to a whole new level. Typically, they perform well at home, but their home production this season has still been below league average thanks to a void of talent in the lineup. When away from their friendly ballpark the numbers fall off a cliff, and their road production against right-handed pitching of late has been non-existent. In the last 30 days against right-handers when away from Coors, the Rockies rank 27th in AVG, 29th in BB%, 30th in wOBA, 30th in K%, and have a wRC+ 59. That 30.7% K% across a sample of 336 PA is what Webb enters into today.
The Rockies plate discipline in the last month has been laughable, chasing pitches outside the zone at a 37% clip, the highest mark in that span. Their chase contact rate sits 3rd worst in the span while their zone contact rate is 2nd lowest. A 14.7% swinging strike rate and 30.0% CSW% rank as the highest and 2nd highest marks in that span respectively. Their projected lineup for tonight has 8 batters with a K% of 23.5% or higher against right-handed pitching this season. That includes 6 guys 25.1% or higher and 5 at 28.8% or higher.
The last time Webb faced this lineup, he tossed a complete game shutout with 10 Ks recorded and 0 walks issued. That was a home start for Webb, and the right-hander loves pitching at home where he has held opponents to a 2.51 ERA. He has thrown 6 or more innings in 13 of his 14 home starts, giving him a solid floor of batters faced per start. Webb averages under a strikeout per inning but is more than willing to ramp it up against weaker competition. When at home this year, Logan has 6 or more strikeouts in 10 of his 14 starts. His sinker, slider, and changeup can all contribute to his total with those 3 pitches working off one another. He generates a ton of looking strikes from his deception and movement on those offerings, and with how poor the Rockies have been seeing the ball, this is a dream matchup.
Looking to secure yourself $100 in bonus bets? Click here to sign up for Unibet to take advantage of their awesome sign-up offer right now.
