Javan Shouey
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With only a month left in the MLB regular season, the divisional and wild-card races are heating up across the league. The most tightly contested division is the AL West with the Mariners, Astros and Rangers all competing for top spot. Houston and Texas face off tonight in the second game of their series and the Astros offense is the focus of this article. Remember you can also read our MLB predictions for every game today, plus our MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRF Best Bets. Let’s dive in!
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Houston Astros team total over 4 (-133)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140, or over 4.5 at -105 or better.
The Houston Astros’ offense continued to roll in yesterday’s game, scoring 13 runs and taking the first game of a crucial series with the Texas Rangers. Nathan Eovaldi will start today’s game for the Rangers, making his first start since July 18, when he hit the IL. The veteran hasn’t made any game appearances since that date, and instead has worked his way back with at least 7 bullpen sessions and 1 live batting practice session. It is hard to replicate true game action, however, and despite his willingness to rejoin the rotation for the stretch run, it remains to be seen how long he can pitch, and how well he can perform. Eovaldi is someone I have bet on over the years when in full health, as his stuff is truly some of the nastiest in the sport. That being said, he has always been susceptible to the home-run ball and hard contact in general. The Astros also have fantastic head-to-head history against Eovaldi already, having a combined 154 PA against him. Their .293/.355/.564 slash line with 9 home runs to only 28 strikeouts in that span gives me faith that they will see the ball well out of his hand. He did toss 7 scoreless innings in his first matchup against them this season, but that was with full health and his command still wasn’t the best in that outing with 4 free passes issued. I have concerns about him this time around.
If Eovaldi is unable to work a full starters workload, that could put pressure on an already-taxed Rangers bullpen. Texas has issues with their bullpen, both in terms of performance and their recent workload. Yesterday’s short outing from Andrew Heaney resulted in Martin Perez, Josh Sborz and Glenn Otto all being used. All 3 of those pitchers are capable of working multiple innings in an outing, and Texas had planned to have them fresh for today’s game in case they needed length. Chris Stratton, Josh Leclerc, Will Smith and Cody Bradford have also already been used twice in the last 3 days, making their entrance into tonight’s contest shaky. Even if this unit was fully rested, they aren’t very good. In the last 30 days they rank 24th with a 5.44 ERA, and their 6.07 FIP ranks dead last in all of MLB. This is dangerous against Houston given how well they hit either handedness. Against southpaw pitching they have been the league’s best unit in the last 30 days, but against right-handers in that span they still rank 5th in AVG, 8th in wOBA, and have a 114 wRC+. Having all 9 innings to bat gives me faith they find at least 5 runs in this game, and if they fall on only 4, we get our money back. Look for the Astros lineup to continue rolling.
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Dean Kremer (Orioles) 5+ strikeouts / Orioles team total over 2.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
Dean Kremer is not someone I often target in the strikeout department, but there are several factors leading me to like his matchup today. The former Dodgers prospect was acquired by Baltimore in the Manny Machado deal years ago and has since found his spot in the Orioles starting rotation. Kremer has tossed 150 innings for the club this season, pitching to a 12-5 record with Baltimore winning 20 of his 27 starts. The right-hander doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his 6-pitch repertoire features enough movement and deception to keep batters off balance. Kremer has been consistently working deep into ball games recently, tossing 7, 6, 6, and 6 innings in his last 4 starts. With an average of 93 pitches and 25 batters faced per start in that stretch, Kremer’s workload is something that has provided him with a steady floor in his strikeout totals.
Kremer has recorded 5 or more strikeouts recorded 14 times in his last 18 starts. Despite having 6 or more strikeouts in just 1 of his last 8 starts, Kremer has been tagged with a 5.5 K prop today, and the line keeps getting bet towards the over. This is largely to do with the matchup at hand, as Kremer draws a very advantageous spot against this Los Angeles Angels lineup. L.A. in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching has the 6th-highest K% at 25.9%, while their wRC+ of 78 is allowing opposing starters to work deep into ball games. The result is 5 or more strikeouts from 18 of the last 24 non-opener right-handed starting pitchers they have seen. Their plate discipline is horrendous in the last 30 days overall, ranking 29th in chase rate. Their contact skills in that span have suffered as well, ranking 22nd in chase contact rate, 26th in zone contact rate, 29th in swinging strike rate and 21st in CSW%.
Grayson Rodriguez was able to freeze the Angels last night with his late-breaking movement, catching them looking for a third strike on several occasions. Kremer should find success doing the same tonight, especially when factoring in the likelihood of a large strike zone. Doug Eddings will be the home-plate umpire and is known for being one of the more pitcher-friendly umpires in the sport. His recent stretch of games has seen 10, 7, 12, 10, 10, 9, and 12 balls thrown off the plate that were called strikes. According to Umpire Scorecards on Twitter, Eddings has had only 6 pitches located inside the strike zone that he called a ball. That is what we like to see when searching out Kremer strikeouts.
As for the Orioles offense, they have been very good against left-handed pitching since the All-Star break. In that span they rank 12th in wOBA, 10th in SLG, 10th in AVG and 4th in hard-hit rate, while recording the 10th-lowest K% and a wRC+ of 111. They have seen the 7th-most PA against southpaws in this span. Since the All-Star break they have scored 3 or more runs in 16 of the 19 games where the opponent has started a left-handed pitcher. Reid Detmers will start for the Angels tonight, and while his talents have me a long-term believer in his future, his last 10 starts have been rather undesirable. Those 47.2 IP have combined for a 6.99 ERA, 6.26 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, 10.9% K-BB%, 45.7% hard-hit rate, and 29.0% chase rate. Baltimore hasn’t been drawing many walks, but they do likely return Adley Rutschman to the top of the order after he received a rest day yesterday. Once Detmers leaves the Angels bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA and 27th in FIP across the last 30 days takes over.
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