Javan Shouey
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We have a solid slate of MLB action in the final day of September, as teams look to close out the regular season strongly. With all 30 teams in action there are plenty of possible betting angles, and this article will highlight my 3 favorites for today.
You can also read our MLB predictions for today’s games, but now let’s dive in!
Kutter Crawford (Red Sox) over 4.5 strikeouts (-140)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks. Playable to -155.
Kutter Crawford highlights my favorite plays for today’s slate of games with his strikeout total being set at only 4.5. The right-hander has worked both as a starter and reliever for Boston this season, but is currently fully stretched out in a starting role. Crawford has thrown 96, 93, 84 and 93 pitches in his 4 starts this month, recording 5, 7, 7 and 7 strikeouts in those outings. He has 15 games this season with 74 or more pitches thrown, while recording 5 or more strikeouts in 14 of those games. With Boston being eliminated from playoff contention and having very little to play for, Crawford should have another long leash to work with this evening.
The 16th-round pick in 2017 has a 6-pitch arsenal that features a 4-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, splitter, sweeper and a more traditional slider. Each offering receives at least 6.1% usage, but his 4-seamer is the main pitch he goes to. That pitch alone has accounted for 67 of his 128 strikeouts this season, generating a 25.7% whiff rate and 23.5% put-away rate. The Orioles in the last 3 days against right-handed 4-seam fastballs have the 8th-highest strikeout rate at 25.9%, and on the season against right-handed 4-seamers their 23.1% rate is the 11th-highest mark. Baltimore rolled out a watered-down lineup in last night’s game after clinching the divisional crown on Thursday. Nick Pivetta took advantage with 10 strikeouts. While they may reintroduce more guys into the order tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a backup or two in the lineup. Even if at full strength this line seems a bit low given Crawford’s production this year and his projected workload.
Crawford ranks in the 83rd percentile in chase rate this season, which has contributed to his career-best 25.2% strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate sits at a very healthy 12.5% mark. Kutter’s last start saw a 16.1% swinging strike rate across his 93 pitches. He is able to strike out batters from either side of the plate given his wide range of pitches, and that will be key against a presumably lefty-heavy lineup from the Orioles. Home-plate umpire Mike Muchlinski is generally a relatively strikeout-friendly umpire, although he is inconsistent. Regardless, Crawford’s swinging strike rate should help clean up any possible umpire mistakes and help find 5 or more strikeouts in this matchup. I don’t mind a sprinkle on his ladder either as he has potential for a big night if able to limit damage and work deep.
Cubs first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+114)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Playable to -110.
After laying -140 on a pitcher prop, I figured I would give you the plus-money play next. I am not sure why the Cubs have this price tag against Eric Lauer, but I will gladly bite. We faded the left-handed pitcher in his last major-league start in May against the Rays, and he allowed 6 earned runs including 3 home runs in only 3 innings of work. He has since been in the minor leagues with varying degrees of success. Lauer has most recently allowed 4, 1, 6, 3, 3, 0 and 4 runs in his last 7 outings at AAA Nashville and is now tasked with dealing against a hungry and potent Cubs offense.
Chicago is in the midst of one last push for the playoffs and they have been hitting left-handed pitching very well. In the last 30 days against that handedness of pitching they rank 2nd in AVG, SLG, and wOBA while striking out at the lowest rate and posting a wRC+ of 153. Since the All-Star break their 109 wRC+ against southpaws is still a very impressive mark. Their lineup is stocked with right-handed batters, likely sending 8 out there tonight to face Lauer. The Brewers pitcher has had massive struggles with right-handed batters this season, allowing a .311 batting average with an OPS of 1.012. The only left-handed batter for the Cubs will be Cody Bellinger, who is hitting .337 against his own handedness this year.
Before being sent down Lauer allowed a 10.7% walk rate, 13.5%-barrel rate, 45.2% hard-hit rate, 40.5% fly ball rate and .293 xBA. All of those marks sit towards the bottom of the league and relocation to the minor leagues was a sad sight for me and other people betting on his opposition. The full game total over 4.5 also shows some value but I would rather avoid the solid Brewers bullpen as much as I can and attempt to isolate Eric Lauer innings.
Cincinnati Reds team total over 4.5 (-118)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook. Playable to -135.
Last but not least is a fade of St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Drew Rom. The left-hander was acquired from Baltimore at the trade deadline as part of the Jack Flaherty deal. Rom labored through 86 AAA innings with the Orioles this season, posting a 5.34 ERA with an alarming walk rate. The Cardinals, having their season already finished essentially, have let Rom work some innings at the major-league level to get a better look of what they are dealing with. What they are dealing with is a struggling arm, as the 23-year-old rookie has been hit around by his opposition. Rom has allowed 8, 2, 3, 4, 0, 5 and 8 runs in his 7 starts, with 6 home runs and 16 walks surrendered across only 29.1 IP. The southpaw averages just 90.4 mph on his 4-seam fastball yet throws that pitch 42.2% of the time. When behind in counts, as he often is thanks to a 54.1% first-pitch strike rate, his sinker usage spikes as he looks to generate a ground-ball out. Neither of those fastballs have been effective pitches for him at this level, allowing a .340 AVG and .680 SLG on his 4-seamer and a .324 AVG and .559 SLG on his sinker. His sweeper and splitter have also been hit hard, leaving him out to dry without a consistent pitch to go to.
Rom has posted a 5.84 FIP, 5.45 SIERA, 7.98 ERA, 6.1% K-BB%, 13.1%-barrel rate, and 47.7% hard-hit rate through his first 7 outings. He now faces a Reds offense for the second time this year, and they scored 4 runs off him in the first matchup alongside 7 hits, 2 walks and 2 home runs. Against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days the Reds rank 5th in wOBA, 7th in BB%, 5th in AVG, 8th in SLG, and 10th in HR to FB% while striking out at the 10th-lowest rate and recording a 122 wRC+. Getting a second look at the rookie arm can only benefit the batters, and with their right-handed heavy approach they should be able to take advantage of Rom’s weaknesses. Unlike the Cubs play where I am isolating the first 5 innings, I prefer backing Cincinnati across all 9 innings in this game. They are the road team which ensures all 9 innings to bat regardless of score. This allows them to face the Cardinals bullpen extensively, and they are a group worth picking on. In the last 30 days alone St. Louis relievers rank 27th in FIP with the 5th lowest K-BB% and 5th highest HR to FB%. This has been a poor season for the Cardinals and their weak bullpen has been a major reason why. With the Reds hoping to squeak into the playoffs we should see their best possible lineup and focused at-bats throughout the game.
You can also read today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
