Javan Shouey
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With a full slate of college football today, the focus of many bettors and sports fans in general will shift away from MLB. That is not the case with us, however, and today’s article highlights my 2 favorite player props from today’s MLB action. Let’s dive in!
Kyle Bradish (BAL) over 15.5 outs recorded (-127)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable at 16.5 if it moves off 15.5.
Kyle Bradish is being disrespected with this line, in my opinion. The 2nd-year right-hander has been the ace of this Orioles pitching staff this season and has cemented himself as a core part of the team’s future. Among pitchers with 130 or more innings pitched this season Bradish ranks 6th best in ERA, 10th in FIP, and has the 15th highest ground ball rate. His 17.6% K-BB% is tied with Blake Snell for 25th best among that list as well thanks to nasty breaking balls and plus command of the strike zone. Bradish ranks in the 100th percentile for breaking ball run value this season according to Baseball Savant, and his consistency is what Baltimore’s pitching staff has needed.
Bradish will make his return home today, having grown up in the state of Arizona. He has stated he expects upwards of 25 family members in attendance, and given he grew up rooting for the team he could in theory have some early inning jitters. I am not too worried about this, however, as Bradish has started games extremely well this season, holding opponents to a .188 AVG and .549 OPS the first time through the order. The only Diamondback batters to have faced Bradish at this level are Tommy Pham and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., neither one with double-digit AB against him. A lack of unfamiliarity from the young Arizona bats could lead to a slow start offensively, as Bradish’s breaking balls seem to take time to adjust to.
His slider and curveball are both deadly wipeout pitches that he can use with 2 strikes, but they have also missed barrels with the late-breaking movement consistently giving opponents fits. Bradish’s 4-seam fastball is by far his worst pitch, but he used that offering a season low 16% last month compared to last season’s 44.5% usage overall. Replacing the majority of that lost usage with his sinker has helped keep the ball on the ground and allow him to efficiently work deep into games. Bradish has recorded 6 or more innings of work in 10 of his 111 starts this season. The one miss was a start where his command was off, issuing 5 walks and running up his pitch count. Today Bradish will pitch on 6 days of rest for the 6th time this season. The previous 5 outings have resulted in 27 innings of 2-run ball with 16 hits allowed and only 5 walks issued to his 31 strikeouts. Having the extra rest has given the young arm some added juice this season, and I like his matchup against the Diamondbacks who sit 9th worst in wOBA against right-handed sliders and curveballs across the last 30 days.
Alec Marsh (KCR) o4.5 hits allowed (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -145 odds.
Alec Marsh has his outs recorded line sitting at 14.5 today despite 15 or more outs in 4 straight starts and pitching into the 6th in both of the last 2. With an average of 94.25 pitches and 24 batters faced in those outings, workload is not his concern today. The matchup against a very competent Boston Red Sox offense is, however. Marsh faced this lineup on August 10, allowing 6 hits across his 5 innings of work. He pitched fine in that outing, allowing the only 2 runs of the game, but Boston was still able to make quality contact against his pitch mix. Marsh has appeared in 11 games this season, starting 7 of them. In 8 of those outings Marsh has thrown 90 or more pitches, allowing 5 or more hits in 6 of those games. Even with only 75 pitched against Cleveland and 66 against the Phillies he allowed 5 or more. Walks can be an issue for the right-hander with his subpar command, but with his recent workload I still see value in this prop.
Marsh ranks just 38th percentile in xBA this season, and his fastball heavy approach is a tough one to enter a game with against this lineup. In the last 30 days against right-handed 4-seam fastballs the Red Sox rank 4th in batting average at .292 while 10th with a .504 SLG. The right-hander uses that pitch 41.7% of the time. Against left-handed batters Marsh uses his changeup 23.4% of the time with opposing lefties hitting .414 with a .690 SLG. Boston could roll out 6 left-handed batters if they so desire, but Marsh has also struggled against right-handed batters this season allowing a .278 AVG and 1.009 OPS. Adam Duvall has been on fire in the middle of the Boston order, hitting .304 in August with a 1.045 OPS and a stretch of 2 or more hits in 8 of 11 games. Justin Turner also hit .292 with a .890 OPS in August from the right side, and he wasn’t even in the lineup for the first matchup. Last night Jordan Lyles pitched 8 innings with only 4 hits allowed against this offense, but they still have 5 or more hits against 17 of the last 20 right-handed starting pitchers they have faced.
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