Javan Shouey
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For the last 15 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
Be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games
Logan Gilbert (SEA) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Posted to Twitter and will track at the -140 I played.
The first thing I noticed today when scanning player props on this slate was that Logan Gilbert has his outs recorded line at 15.5. While I have a clear lean to the over at that number, one he has cleared in 16 of his last 19 starts, it worries me to see that number listed. We backed George Kirby to record 6 strikeouts against this same Tigers offense two nights ago. Kirby unfortunately landed on 5 Ks before being pulled at 79 pitches. He pitched well, allowing 3 base runners and 0 runs, but with the game out of hand Seattle opted to shorten their young arm’s outing. The 9-0 Seattle lead surely had a role in that decision but with that issue possibly applying to their other young arm in Gilbert, I have decided to go another route.
I do expect Gilbert to likely surpass 5 innings of work, but the Tigers’ first 5 inning team total is set at 1.5 with juice to the under. At -125 I believe we are getting a good price on Gilbert’s earned run prop. There is no guarantee he goes past the 5th inning, and even if he does, this Tigers offense is one I love to pick on. Detroit in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching ranks 30th in hard contact%, 27th in HR/FB% and has the 6th-highest groundball rate. They have a wRC+ of only 78 while ranking 28th in wOBA and OPS, 27th in ISO and 24th in BB%. Of the last 25 right-handed starting pitchers to face this lineup, 17 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs.
Gilbert has some worrisome advanced stats but the majority of those concerns are alleviated when facing Detroit. Gilbert does rank in the 67th percentile in walk rate this season and gets ahead in counts with a 63.8% first-pitch strike rate. My main concerns with Gilbert are his high line-drive rate and his high 4-seam fastball usage. That being said, the 25-year-old has produced very well for Seattle this season.
On the road this year, Gilbert has a 3.15 ERA with a .236 OBA in 15 starts. When pitching during the day, Gilbert has a 3.22 ERA and .225 OBA in 12 starts. He has stayed under this 2.5 earned runs line in 15 of 26 starts but 9 of 15 on the road. Detroit has yet to face Gilbert this season and that should benefit the pitcher, at least the first time through the order. The Tigers love to stack left-handed batters in their lineup when facing a right-handed pitcher. The thing is, Gilbert is a reverse-split pitcher who has allowed a .213 OBA and .604 OPS to LHB this season. Coming off a solid start against Cleveland, I like the chances for another quality outing from Gilbert this afternoon.
Be sure to check out our full Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers predictions
Johnny Cueto (CWS) over 17.5 outs recorded (-140)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that price.
Like Logan Gilbert, bookmakers hung an outs recorded line on Johnny Cueto this morning that Cueto has cleared in 16 of 19 starts. This certainly surprised me but, unlike with Gilbert, I struggled to find the reasoning behind this line. Cueto has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the disappointing White Sox this season. The 36-year-old right-hander has posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season while racking up 123.2 IP across 19 starts. Cueto has thrown 1,301 pitches in his last 13 starts with no fewer than 90 pitches in any of those starts.
On the season, Cueto averages 4.92 pitches per out recorded which translates to 6 innings over 88.6 pitches. He doesn’t walk batters often with his 86th percentile walk rate. The main reason for his efficiency is he isn’t attempting to strike out batters at his advanced age. Cueto has perfectly encapsulated the role of a pitch-to-contact pitcher who mixes speeds and deliveries to keep batters off balance. As a result, his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate all rank 62nd percentile or better.
Cueto draws a ton of chases but with his chase contact rate, the main result is a ton of weak contact. He has a line drive rate 4.3% lower than average with a league average ground ball rate. His 66.9% first-pitch strike rate is lethal as his 5-pitch arsenal can utilize any pitch in any count. His sinker is his most used pitch at a 26.1% clip while his 4-seam fastball and cutter are his least used pitches at 16.3% each.
Even when Cueto has allowed runs, Tony La Russa has opted to let him struggle it out. Now he faces a Kansas City offense that in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching ranks 24th in BB%, 22nd in wOBA, 23rd in OPS, 21st in SLG and has a wRC+ of 85. During that span, the Royals rank 26th in line drive rate and 18th in home run to fly ball ratio. On the season, the Royals have the 2nd-fewest pitches per plate appearance. Cueto ranks 9th best in that category among all qualifying pitchers this season. Lance Lynn carved this lineup up yesterday for 7 innings of 1-run ball. Cueto has a 2.08 ERA this season across 39 IP in the daytime and I’m looking for another 6 innings from the veteran tonight.
Read our Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox same game parlay!
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