Javan Shouey
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Sunday has brought us a nice slate of games with intriguing matchups throughout the day. There are several games I will be tuning into as a fan, but from a betting perspective there is a prop standing out to me in the Rockies at Padres game. Let’s dive in!
Matt Waldron (SDP) under 5.5 hits allowed (-127)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
It has been well documented over the years how the Colorado Rockies benefit from playing their home games in the hitter-friendly Coors Field. The elevation makes it harder for opposing starters to utilize their breaking balls to full capacity, and this has resulted in drastic home/road splits for Colorado hitters. This season has been no different and today we will look to take advantage with Padres starter Matt Waldron. Waldron utilizes a 5-pitch approach but unlike most starters with a full arsenal, his begins with a knuckleball that receives 38.9% usage. That pitch has held opponents to a .231 AVG while generating a 27.7% whiff rate and 61 of his 109 strikeouts. His sweeper doesn’t generate as much swing and miss as you might expect, but does induce a ton of weak contact and holds batters to a .217 AVG. He uses a 4-seamer to keep opponents honest and it performs fairly for the purpose it serves. Waldron then uses either a cutter or sinker depending on the handedness of the batter he faces for his final offerings. The sinker is the only pitch that generates truly poor results, but overall Waldron sports a very solid batted ball profile. He ranks 84th percentile this season in hard-hit rate allowed while sitting 72nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 70th percentile in barrel rate, and 59th percentile in xBA.
On the year Waldron has held opponents to 5 or fewer hits in 13 of his 22 starts. This includes 8 of his last 11 outings in what has been a very strong stretch for the right-hander. He began the season poorly at home with 6 or more hits and 4 or more earned runs allowed in each of his 3 home April starts. Since then, Waldron has pitched very well at home with 5 or fewer hits allowed in 5 of his last 7 starts. That stretch includes 2 starts against both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers who rank highly against right-handed pitching. The Rockies enter this game with 5 or fewer hits against 11 of the last 14 right-handed starters they have faced away from Coors. That includes arms like Randy Vasquez, Carson Fulmer, and Davis Daniel in their last 3. Since July 1 the Rockies rank 2nd in AVG against RHP when at home, but when on the road in that timespan they sit 20th. On the season they are hitting just .228 against right-handers when on the road, posting the 3rd highest K% and a wRC+ of 82 in that sample as well.
Waldron has been performing similarly against either handedness of batter, so it doesn’t worry me to play this bet before the Rockies release a lineup. He already faced Colorado earlier this season, allowing just 4 hits across 6 innings of work in a game at Coors Field. Now in a far easier home park with a rested bullpen behind him I like our chances of 5 or fewer hits allowed.
