Javan Shouey
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Wednesday’s MLB slate contains 15 games to consume as all 30 MLB teams will take the field. With August quickly coming to a close, this final stretch run is going to be crucial in determining who comprises the playoff field.
One of today’s games is an important matchup between teams competing for a National League wild-card spot as the San Francisco Giants host the Cincinnati Reds. My favorite player prop for today is in that game, so let’s dive in! Remember you can also read our MLB picks for every game on today’s slate.
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Logan Webb (Giants) over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Logan Webb is one of baseball’s better starting pitchers and has been for each of the last 3 seasons. This year the right-hander ranks 18th in ERA, 14th in xERA, 8th in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, 3rd in SIERA, 9th in WHIP, 1st in GB%, and 10th in fWAR. He is likely to finish within the top 5 vote-getters in the NL for the Cy Young award, and he has been at his best at home this season. The 26-year-old has made 13 home starts spanning a combined 90.2 innings, tossing 6 or more innings in 12 of those 13 starts. His .227 OBA, nearly 6:1 K:BB ratio, and only 8 home runs have combined for a 2.48 ERA. Today he draws another home start, this time against the struggling Cincinnati Reds lineup.
The Giants’ dependency on Webb has been massive this season, with Alex Cobb as the only other Giant with 20+ starts. Anthony DeSclafani hasn’t thrown in more than a month, resulting in Webb making 18 starts, and the 4th most on the team is Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Ryan Walker with 11 starts each. Walker’s “starts” are just games he opens, as the talented reliever handles the first 5-8 batters of the game for the bulk reliever. San Francisco has utilized bullpen games more than anyone else in the league, and its dependency on Webb to be consistent is much higher than the aces on most other teams.
Today Webb gets a home start in what lines up as a plus matchup on paper. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, a sample of 690 PA, the Cincinnati Reds have struck out 28.7% of the time, the 2nd-highest rate behind only the Colorado Rockies. In this span they rank 20th in BB, 25th in AVG, 22nd in SLG, 25th in wOBA, and their wRC+ sits at just 79. Regardless of handedness faced in that time, the Reds’ plate discipline has been putrid, ranking 27th in zone contact rate and recording the 3rd-highest CSW%. Not only will they swing and miss, but the Reds have taken the 3rd-most looking strikeouts this season, and their 28.4% looking strike rate overall ranks as the 2nd-highest mark.
Webb is not necessarily a strikeout artist, but he is a cerebral pitcher who picks up on opponent’s tendencies and is more than willing to mold his game to best outduel his opposition. There is a lot to like when it comes to his strikeout potential in this matchup. For starters, Webb uses a combination of changeups, sinkers and sliders to punch out batters, with his changeup leading the way. That offering has accounted for 78 of his 163 strikeouts this season. The Reds rank 2nd-worst in K% against right-handed changeups in the last 60 days, and 3rd-worst in the last 30. Against right-handed sliders they have the highest K% across both the last 30 and last 60 days. Webb’s sinker doesn’t generate many whiffs at just 10.3%, but his 22.1% put-away rate with that offering is thanks to elite location and his ability to spot it on the paint with 2 strikes. That pitch accounts for the majority of his looking strikeouts, and today Webb gets the benefit of arguably the most pitcher-friendly umpire, Bill Miller. Miller is notorious for his wide zone and a great match for Webb’s command.
The Reds’ lineup is projected to contain 6 batters with a 23% or higher K% against right-handed pitching this season. Webb’s 23.7% K% against left-handed batters falls to just 23.1% against righties, providing value regardless of how the Reds handle their platoons. Alex Cobb entered yesterday’s game against the Reds having completed 6 full frames just once in August while recording 4, 3, 3, 3 and 4 strikeouts in his first 5 starts. Last night he threw a complete-game shutout with 8 Ks against this lineup. That is now 9 straight right-handed starting pitchers to allow 2 or fewer earned runs against Cincinnati, and with Webb’s consistency and workload I love the value on his strikeout prop this afternoon.
Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Over 4.5 playable to -140 odds, or over 5 (-105).
The majority of the team total bets I make are on road teams getting a 3.5 or 4.5 line. That is because the road team is guaranteed to bat in all 9 innings regardless of the score, whereas the home team gets only 8 innings if winning the game after the top of the 9th. I understand we are paying -135 juice on this line, but I truly believe it should have been set at 5.5 given the Phillies’ offensive form and the matchup at hand.
The Phillies have won 26 of their last 42 games, soaring up the standings behind some strong offensive play. Their lineup in that span is averaging 5.67 runs per game. In their last 19 home games they have scored 5 or more 13 times, averaging 6.53 runs per contest. They are performing well against either handedness, making them deadly even late in games when the bullpens enter. The Angels bullpen has been in terrible form in the last 30 days, ranking 30th in WHIP and 27th in ERA, FIP and wOBA. Los Angeles has used its bullpen in 5 straight days and last night the Angels released both Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez, further weakening their unit.
While I expect scoring opportunities against the bullpen, my favorite aspect of this play is the matchup against Reid Detmers. The talented left-hander is someone I have both bet on and against several times this season. When on his game his strikeout capabilities elevate his game and can help him produce solid outings, but his performance so far in August has left a lot to be desired. In 4 starts this month spanning 18.2 combined innings, Detmers has allowed 18 earned runs with 6 home runs and 11 walks to his 12 Ks. His 8.68 ERA, 8.25 FIO, 6.07 SIERA, 9.2%-barrel rate and 1.1% K-BB% in that span are all drastic downgrades from his season-long numbers. Still, even on the year his 33rd percentile BB%, 32nd percentile hard-hit rate, and 36th percentile xBA aren’t the best numbers to have against this Phillies team.
In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching the Phillies have produced a 133 wRC+ while ranking 8th in AVG, 9th in BB%, 5th in SLG, 6th in wOBA, 4th in hard-hit rate, 5th in HR/FB% and 9th in FB% overall. Bryce Harper deserves to be talked about on his own, as the left-handed masher is hitting .366 with a 1.229 OPS and 9 home runs this month. He has 2 or more hits in 8 of his last 12 games and is seeing the ball the best he has all season. Detmers is left-handed but has reverse splits this season with LHB producing a .935 OPS and .406 wOBA against him.
Even if Reid begins the game well, he is prone to middle-inning blow ups, allowing a .330 AVG and .917 OPS the 3rd time through the order this season. Ballpark Pal is projecting Citizens Bank Park to have an 8% boost in overall run scoring and a 20% boost in home run chances today thanks to warm weather in Philadelphia. I’m looking for the home team to score 5 or more runs in this matchup.
Remember to also check out today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
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