Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Tuesday’s MLB slate.
Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) under 2.5 earned runs (-125)
Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Jesus Luzardo has been highly talked-about as an up-and-coming prospect for years now. The 24-year-0ld southpaw is finally starting to put things together at the major-league level. In his 11 starts this season Luzardo has held opponents to 2 or fewer earned runs 8 times. He has very impressive advanced stats including his 82nd percentile xERA, 87th percentile xBA, 82nd percentile xSLG and 69th percentile barrel rate. Luzardo gets ahead in counts with a 68.1% first-pitch strike rate, which is very impressive for such a young pitcher. It is also a mark nearly 10% higher than his rate last season. When ahead in counts he spikes his curveball usage to 43.6% and allows a .113 xBA and .150 xSLG on that pitch. Luzardo uses 4 pitches at least 22.1% of the time which helps to keep batters off balance. His average curveball speed is 83.8 mph, but his average 4-seam fastball reached 96.7 MPH. His changeup serves as a crucial tool for him as the middling speed of the pitch mixed with its exceptional location have resulted in a .171 xBA and 47.8% whiff rate.
Luzardo’s splits show he has performed worse at home, but this is due to facing St. Louis and Atlanta for nearly half of those innings. Overall, LoanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly park that tends to limit home-run production. Tampa Bay is coming off a matchup with Rich Hill where the 42-year-old Hill pitched 7 scoreless innings while allowing 4 total base runners and striking out 11. In the last 60 days against left-handed pitching on the road, Tampa Bay has a wRC+ of just 71. They rank 26th in wOBA, 27th in OPS, 25th in ISO and 27th in AVG during that span. They faced only 12 non-opener starters from the left side during that stretch, with 7 of them going under this number. The pitchers to allow 3 or more earned runs were Nick Lodolo, DL Hall, Kris Bubic, Jose Saurez and Nestor Cortes, who pitched 7 innings. If Tucker Davidson, Yusei Kikuchi (twice) and Rich Hill can shut down this Tampa Bay offense then I want to back Luzardo against them.
Miami’s bullpen had the day off Saturday and used low-leverage arms on Sunday before being called upon as a unit in yesterday’s game. They should still have everyone available and with Luzardo coming off a season-high in pitches thrown in his last start, they shouldn’t need to overextend him in this spot.
Be sure to check out our full Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins predictions
George Kirby (Mariners) over 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
The Mariners’ rookie pitcher George Kirby has shown flashes of dominance in his last 6 starts. His last start saw 24 consecutive strikes thrown to begin the game which set an MLB record. The 20th overall draft pick in the 2019 MLB draft has pitched 33.1 innings in his last 6 starts with increasing pitch counts in each start until he was back to where he left off. Kirby was sent to the minors for a brief stint before returning two weeks later. This was a plan for Kirby by the organization in order to keep his overall total innings low while being able to depend on him for the stretch run. Well, it’s time for the stretch run.
Seattle is in the thick of the AL wild card race and Kirby has done his job during his recent turns around the rotation. His last 33.1 innings have resulted in a 1.11 WHIP and 2.43 ERA with only 4 walks and 0 home runs allowed. Most importantly for this bet, however, Kirby has racked up 40 strikeouts in those 33.1 IP with a strikeout recorded every 11.68 pitches thrown. His 29.4% K% during these starts is an improvement from his already 64th percentile K% on the season. The main thing I love about Kirby is his relentless throwing of strikes. Kirby throws first-pitch strikes 66.1% of the time. His 55.1% of pitches thrown in the zone would imply he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher, but his stuff says otherwise. Opponents swing at his pitches in the zone 5.1% more than average but connect on those swings 1.8% less than average. His 1.05 K/IP on the season ranks 57th percentile and he doesn’t walk batters ranking 99th percentile in BB%. Kirby should see 85 or more pitches in this spot and draws a very favorable matchup.
I will give the Tigers some credit by saying they have hit better during the last 2 weeks against right-handed pitching. That being said, in the last 30 days they have the league’s highest strikeout rate at 28.9%, 3.4% higher than the next closest team. During that span they rank 24th in BB%, 28th in SLG OPS and ISO and 29th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 80. On the year they have the 5th-highest zone swing rate and the 5th lowest zone contact rate. They chase on pitches outside the zone the most in baseball with the 11th-lowest chase contact rate this season. Overall, they have the highest swing rate and 3rd-highest whiff rate which is a recipe for failure against quality opponents. Kirby has an xBA of .233 compared to his .268 OBA to this point and is likely to see positive regression continue in that department. I love this spot for the rookie to continue to roll.
Be sure to check out our full Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers predictions
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