Javan Shouey
Show Bio
August baseball is underway, and Saturday’s slate of games features all 30 MLB teams in action. There are several enticing matchups from an entertainment perspective, but from a betting view I am zoning in on the matchup between Chicago Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon and the St. Louis Cardinals. Let’s dive in!
Jameson Taillon (CHC) Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130 odds. 0.5u.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) Over 5.5 hits allowed (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings and Bet365 at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -115.
Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has had a decent bounce back season so far in 2024, improving on most of his numbers from the previous season. One team he has not had success against, however, is the Cardinals; they have plagued him throughout his career. Active Cardinals hitters have 200 combined plate appearances against the right-hander all-time, and in that sample, they have combined for a .319 AVG and .364 wOBA. Taillon has faced the Cardinals 3 times this season, recording just 3 strikeouts in each outing while allowing 9, 7, and 7 hits in those respective outings.
Taillon makes his 4th start against St. Louis today and I am optimistic that the Cardinals can continue their high rate of contact against the Cubs starter. He ranks 90th percentile this season in walk rate, issuing free passes to just 5.1% of the batters he faces. Taillon is a pitcher that lives in the zone more than average, and this season his zone rate is the highest of his career. Overall, Taillon throws strikes at the 24th highest rate among 116 qualified pitchers this season, and his willingness to live in the zone matches up with what the Cardinals aim to do. St. Louis is an aggressive offense and that has been especially true since July 1. Since that date the Cardinals have the league’s 9th highest swing rate in MLB while also recording the 11th-highest contact rate. Against right-handed pitching since that date, they have the 4th-lowest walk rate which shows their willingness to swing the bat. They rank 6th in AVG with the 5th highest hard-hit rate and 8th-lowest strikeout rate against RHP in that sample as well.
Taillon has remained under his 4.5 strikeout prop in each of his last 3 starts and 11 of his 18 starts on the season overall. His underlying strikeout numbers are not impressive as he ranks just 11th percentile in whiff rate and possesses a swinging strike rate of just 8.8%. In his 3 outings against the Cardinals he generated a swinging strike rate of 1.9%, 8.6% and 6.0% in those respective starts, and St. Louis pounded him in the zone with a zone-contact rate of 91.3% or higher in each game. That ability to make contact against his offerings should lead to a ton of balls in play, and Taillon ranks just 34th percentile this season with a .254 xBA.
