Javan Shouey
Show Bio
All 30 MLB teams are in action this Tuesday with a full slate of intriguing matchups on tap. Crucial divisional series are taking place as well as teams contending for wild card positioning, and thus we should expect a fair share of quality entertainment. This article contains my two favorite player props for today, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for today’s games.
You can bet on these MLB player props with BetMGM, which has the best odds available for one of our props and a great new-customer promotion where you can get a $1,000 deposit bonus! Click here to take advantage of this offer.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) under 16.5 outs recorded (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130 odds.
Tyler Anderson is a pitcher I have bet against on numerous occasions this season as his production has fallen off a cliff from last year’s All-Star campaign. His 2022 season with the Dodgers was the best of his career and earned him a sizable contract with the crosstown Angels. This year has not been what either side wanted, however, as Anderson’s 5.35 ERA has more than doubled last year’s 2.57 mark. His 4.83 xERA, 4.46 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA are all his worst marks since 2019 or 2020. Anderson has seen a 5% increase in his walk rate thanks to a 5.9% lower first pitch strike rate and a chase rate that has fallen 5.8%. His pitches are in the zone overall 5% less than last year, and his 63.6% strike rate is the 35th lowest mark among 106 qualified pitchers.
Last season, Anderson averaged 14.4 pitches per inning, but this season that mark is up to 17.6 pitches per inning. Not only is he walking more guys and taking more pitches to finish counts, but his results are also worse when the ball has been put in play. Anderson ranks just 22nd percentile with his .264 xBA, and 37th percentile with a .417 xSLG. His 31.5% ground ball rate is 9.4% lower than last season, and 13.2% below the league average. This inability to keep the ball on the ground results in tougher plays for his defenders, as well as decreased chances of double plays. Anderson has appeared in 23 games this season, starting 21 of them and throwing at least 64 pitches in each outing. He has been held under this 16.5 mark in 15 of those games, and all 4 outings this month. His 4 starts in August have resulted in 19, 22, 20, and 20 batters faced with 80, 82, 81, and 87 pitches in those respective games. He only completed the 5th frame in one of those outings.
Despite just 3rd percentile fastball velocity, the veteran southpaw utilizes his 90.2 MPH 4-seamer an arsenal high 36.3% of the time. His changeup and cutter are the main secondary offerings while he occasionally sprinkles in a 2-seam sinker to LHB. He draws a matchup against a Phillies offense tonight that has been demolishing left-handed pitching of late. In the last 30 days, they have 344 PA against southpaw pitchers, the 5th highest mark in that 30-day sample. They rank 9th in AVG, 7th in wOBA and SLG, 8th in BB%, 5th in hard-hit rate, and 7th with a wRC+ of 129. The Phillies will likely have 6 right-handed batters in tonight’s lineup, playing into Anderson’s worse split, and the 3 left-handers are more than capable of doing damage as well. Anderson has been poor against both handedness of batter this season, and he’s also been worse on the road. Today’s hitting conditions at Citizen’s Bank Park are fantastic with Ballpark Pal projecting a 31% boost in home run chances and 10% boost in overall run scoring. The Phillies have held 9 of the last 10, and 15 of the last 19 non-opener left-handed starting pitchers under this mark.
We’ve hit FOUR parlays in the last 3 days. Check out today’s +1130 MLB mega parlay
You can bet on today’s MLB action over at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has a great sign-up offer where you can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets no matter what! Click here to take advantage and claim your bonus bets right now.
Ken Waldichuk (OAK) over 4.5 hits allowed (-135)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
Ken Waldichuk is receiving a ton of respect with where his props are set today. His strikeout prop sits at 6.5 on some books, while his earned runs prop sat at a very playable price for over 2.5 this morning. While both of those lines showed value in my opinion, this is my favorite way of attacking the Athletics’ left-hander today. The 25-year-old southpaw has been better of late, showing an ability to work deeper into games and see the top of the opposing lineup the 3rd time through. Waldichuk has only faced 83 batters for the 3rd time all season long, with 23 of those coming in his last 4 starts. He has seen 25, 24, 24, and 22 batters in those outings while averaging 91 pitches per start. His first 14 starts averaged under 81 pitches, so that increase in workload is only beneficial to this prop.
When throwing 70 or more pitches this season, Waldichuk has allowed 5 or more hits in 14 of 18 outings. That includes 6, 7, and 8 hits allowed in 3 of his last 4 starts. He faces the Mariners tonight, and his first matchup against Seattle back in May wasn’t his best with 8 hits, 3 walks, and 5 earned runs allowed in under 3 innings of work. Waldichuk has a poor batted ball profile on the year, ranking 30th percentile with his 42.2% hard-hit rate allowed, and 27th percentile with a .435 xSLG. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, the Mariners rank 3rd in SLG and 2nd in wOBA while hitting .329 as a team. They remain within the top 5 in those categories when zooming out to the last 60 days as well.
Waldichuk has really struggled on the road this season, allowing a .303 opponent batting average and 7.43 ERA across his 59.1 IP. He also hasn’t been good against either handedness, allowing righties to hit .289 and lefties to hit .279 against him. Seattle is likely to have a balanced lineup and their current form makes this an extremely enticing spot. They have 5 or more hits against 13 of the last 16 left-handed starting pitchers they have faced including 9 off Kyle Muller last night and 10 against Framber Valdez, their 2 most recent opportunities. They hit left-handed 4-seam fastballs extremely well, ranking 5th in AVG and 4th in SLG across the last 60 days with a sample of 582 pitches. Waldichuk uses his 4-seam fastball 54.2% of the time and 57.8% of the time when behind in the count. His sweeper and changeup fill out his remaining pitch mix, Seattle is 1st in AVG and 7th in SLG against left-handed changeups in that 60-day span, and while their sample of sweepers in that span is small, against southpaw sweepers and sliders combined they sit 10th in AVG. Waldichuk does get wild with his command, and walks could lead to an inflated pitch count, but even with his control issues this line shows quite a bit of value to me.
Bet365 – the world’s #1 sportsbook – has arrived in the United States! If you sign up right now and bet just $1, you can immediately get $200 in bonus bets! Join Bet365 by clicking this link.
