Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Saturdays are often one of the best days of the week to consume MLB action, and today’s slate of games should be no different with all 30 teams slated for action. Plenty of interesting games are on tap including a Joe Ryan vs Max Scherzer matchup this evening. From a betting perspective I was able to find value in other games, however, so let’s dive in!
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James Paxton (BOS) under 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
James Paxton is a strikeout pitcher by nature, averaging over 1.09 strikeouts per inning pitched across the course of his career. The veteran southpaw has dealt with numerous injuries over the years but has still put together a productive season for Boston in 2023. Despite missing the beginning of the year, his 3.79 ERA across 90.1 innings has helped Boston remain alive in the tightly contested wild card race. Paxton has tailed off a bit in production of late, however, as the first 9 starts have been way better than the most recent 8. The first 2 months of Paxton’s season resulted in a 2.70 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 24.5% K-BB%, and .192 AVG allowed. His underlying strikeout numbers were also tremendous with a 14.2% swinging strike rate, 81.4% zone contact rate, and an overall 71.1% contact rate. The last 2 months haven’t been as effective, resulting in a 5.13 ERA, 5.42 FIP, 12.6% K-BB%, and .290 AVG allowed. His swinging strike rate has fallen to 12% while his zone contact rate and overall contact rate allowed sit at 87.3% and 76.9% respectively.
In those last 8 starts Paxton has remained under this 5.5 strikeout line 6 times. This is despite over 92 pitches and nearly 23 batters faced per start in that span. Paxton has seen the production against his 4-seam fastball skyrocket over the last 3 months. In June, opponents hit just .203 against his heater with a .373 SLG. In July opponents had a .267 average and .467 SLG against that offering. This month opponents have rocked his fastball, hitting .300 with a .540 SLG across 45 batted ball events. In May his average 4-seam velocity sat at 96.0 MPH while this month that same pitch has an average velocity of only 94.8 MPH. This drop in velo puts more pressure on his ability to both locate that offering, and his secondary pitches to help neutralize is heavy 4-seam usage. Today Paxton draws a matchup against a Dodgers offense that has mashed left-handed pitching all season, ranking 4th in wOBA with a 118 wRC+ and the 10th lowest K%. In the last 30 days Los Angeles ranks 3rd in wOBA with a 148 wRC+ and just a 15.8% K% across 335 PA, the 2nd lowest rate across the most PA in that span.
The Dodgers projected lineup for today has only one massive strikeout target in Chris Taylor who has a glaring 39.3% K% across his last 252 PA against southpaws. Since the start of last season, however, the next largest K% in that projected lineup is Max Muncy and his 20.9% rate against lefties. Muncy is a lefty himself, which is actually beneficial in terms of K% against Paxton who has an 11.7% lower K% against lefty bats this year. Only Nick Pivetta in the Boston bullpen has been used more than once in the last 3 days, leaving a rested unit behind Paxton. There should be no need to overextend him, and with his typical number of batters faced and pitches thrown this price seems short to me. With home plate umpire Jordan Baker typically having a tight strike zone, there is even more projected value on this prop.
Jordan Lyles (KC) over 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
I have faded Jordan Lyles numerous times this season, as he has been one of MLB’s worst starting pitchers statistically, but the veteran right-hander got the best of me in his last outing against the Cubs. I took this same prop, but Lyles allowed only 5 hits across 8 innings of work against the Chicago Cubs. His start prior to that outing was against the Seattle Mariners, however, and now he faces them once again in a close proximity rematch. That matchup didn’t go well for Lyles who allowed 9 hits including 4 home runs, as 7 Mariners crossed the plate during his time on the mound. His poor outing was in Kansas City where he has pitched better this season, and now he heads on the road where his numbers are truly dreadful.
In 74.1 road innings spanning 13 starts this year Lyles has allowed 82 hits, 15 of which have left the park, and his 6.90 ERA is a full run and a half higher than his already horrible 5.40 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. T-Mobile Park is also typically a more pitcher-friendly park, but today’s hitting conditions have BallPark Pal projecting a solid weather-related 11% boost in home runs and 7% boost in overall run scoring. This helps an already hot Mariner’s offense that ranks 4th in both AVG and wOBA while 9th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span they have a 128 wRC+ while ranking 1st in pull rate which is correlative to power. Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford atop the order have set the tone with regularity, and getting to see a pitcher twice in such a short timespan typically benefits the hitters.
Lyles has thrown 91 or more pitches in 6 straight starts, and averages 24.5 batters faced per start. He has allowed 6 or more hits in 14 of those 24 starts including 7 of the last 10 and 7 of his last 8 on the road. His struggles haven’t been split dependent either, as both left-handed and right-handed batters have done consistent damage to his arsenal this season. Lyles ranks just 17th percentile in xBA and 8th percentile in xSLG this season while also allowing a ton of balls in play. His 79th percentile BB% limits free passes, and his 7th percentile whiff rate has resulted in a miniscule 15.8% K%. Lyles has even benefited this season from the lowest BABIP of his career despite the removal of defensive shifting. The increased number of fly balls could be a reason as to why, but with Seattle’s fly ball propensity and their recent form, I am more than comfortable taking another shot at fading Jordan Lyles.
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Kyle Bradish (BAL) over 17.5 outs recorded (-135)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Kyle Bradish has been the ace of the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff this season. Among pitchers with 120 or more innings pitched this season the 26-year-old right-hander ranks 6th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 17th in GB%, and 26th in BB%. His 71st percentile BB% and 47.4% ground ball rate are a fantastic combination for working deep into ball games, and the result has been his ability to do just that. Bradish has recorded 6 or more innings of work in 14 of his 23 starts this season, but more importantly 9 of his last 10. This shows that despite nearing a career-high in innings pitched in a single season as a pro, he has plenty of gas left in the tank as Baltimore looks to compete come playoff time. The Orioles’ right-hander has seen an even larger ground ball rate and lower ERA across those last 10 outings which have helped him work deep with consistency, and he draws another favorable matchup today against the Colorado Rockies.
Bradish is at home today where he has posted a 2.18 ERA and .202 opponent batting average. He has completed 6 full frames in 7 of his last 8 starts at home, and the splits for Rockies batters at home and on the road is a well-known angle at this point. They clearly benefit from playing their home games in the most favorable hitting conditions in the league, and when on the road their production slips, as has been the case for several years. This season against right-handed pitching when away from Coors Field, Colorado batters rank 27th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 81 and a league-high 27.5% K%. Bradish should find success in the strikeout department as a result, showing value on his 6.5 K prop as well. The Rockies also have the 4th lowest BB% and 7th highest soft contact rate in that sample.
The Rockies will likely utilize a balanced lineup in this matchup, and Bradish has been very good against either handedness this season. Left-handed batters get a ton of his nasty curveball usage, seeing that pitch 22.6% of the time compared to the 13% rate right-handed batters see it at. Bradish holds these lefties to a .183 wOBA with that pitch and Colorado ranks 24th in both AVG and wOBA against right-handed curveballs when away from Coors Field this season. His main secondary offering against right-handers is his filthy slider that generates a 35.9% whiff rate while allowing a .187 wOBA on 39.4% usage. Colorado against right-handed sliders on the road has the 7th highest K%. Bradish sees his OPS climb each time through the order, but even a .701 OPS the 3rd time through is a more than respectable mark. The young arm has proven himself at this level and in an opportune matchup I expect him to perform well once again.
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