Javan Shouey
Show Bio
The final Sunday of August is here, and we have 15 MLB games on tap. There are numerous interesting matchups including Bryan Woo and the Mariners taking on Robbie Ray and the Giants, and the Kansas City Royals hosting the Philadelphia Phillies with extremely favorable hitting conditions. Both of those games are intriguing from a betting perspective and are featured in today’s prop article. Let’s dive in!
Bryan Woo (SEA) under 1.5 walks allowed + Kansas City Royals team total over 3.5 (+107)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds. Risking 1u.
Sunday’s parlay begins with Bryan Woo of the Seattle Mariners. The talented right-hander walked 2 batters in his last start, but that is an uncommon occurrence for Woo. At just 24 years old, Woo has already mastered his control as a pitcher, ranking 99th percentile this season with a 2.9% walk rate. As a rookie in 2023 Woo walked 8.4% of hitters, but massive spikes in his first-pitch strike rate and overall zone rate have contributed to fewer free passes allowed. In his 80.2 innings so far this season Woo has walked just 9 batters total. He did have a short leash for the vast majority of his early season starts, and still averages just 74.9 pitches per start this season as a whole. Woo has seen his leash extended a bit more of late, tossing 88 pitches per start in his 4 August outings so far. I still see quite a bit of value in this prop and am more than willing to use it as a parlay piece in this matchup.
Among pitchers with 80 or more innings this season Woo has the 2nd highest percentage of pitches located inside the strike zone. It is hard to walk batters with such a high zone rate, and Woo also has an above average chase rate. His ability to find strikes with regularity has largely to do with his pitch mix. Woo uses his 4-seam fastball and sinker a combined 74.5% of the time and those pitches are typically easier to locate than breaking balls and off-speed offerings. If Woo had enough innings to qualify, he would rank 1st in strike percentage and average the 6th fewest pitches per plate appearance. He loves to jump ahead early in counts with a 74.1% first-pitch strike rate, and he rarely even gets to 3-ball counts. The Giants rank 15th in MLB in BB% against right-handed pitchers since the all-star break. Among the last 12 non-opener right-handed starters to face San Francisco, 9 have allowed 1 or 0 walks, and I expect that to continue with Woo’s elite command.
Our second part of the parlay is backing the Kansas City Royals to score 4 or more runs. They will take on Kolby Allard in this game as the soft-tossing left-hander will make his 4th start of the season for the Phillies. Allard has pitched 258 MLB innings to this point in his career with a 5.97 ERA to show for it. In his time with the Phillies, he has seen no more than 65 pitches, or 18 batters faced, and his struggles the 2nd time through the order make it unlikely he will ever see the 3rd time through. He has allowed a home run in each of his starts the 2nd time through the lineup, and there is reason to believe he could struggle from the very start today. Kansas City has been lethal offensively at home all season long, averaging the 3rd most runs per game at home of any MLB team at 5.25. They benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly park but today’s hitting conditions are exceptionally good with 92-degree weather and double-digit MPH wind blowing out.
Allard struggles to limit hard contact and that is problematic against a lineup like the Royals. Kansas City has admittedly been better against right-handed pitching of late, but with Allard’s limited leash they should have several chances to hit off right-handers. The Phillies bullpen has also been in poor form since the all-star break, ranking 24th in ERA and 25th in FIP. Their unit is relatively rested but given that poor form and the favorable hitting conditions I am still not concerned with fading them.
