Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s MLB slate is the largest of the season with Hurricane Hilary changing the weekend schedule. Three games scheduled for tomorrow have been moved to today as part of doubleheaders, and as a result today’s schedule has 18 games to enjoy. MLB fans will have plenty to dig into, including my favorite bet of the day below. Let’s discuss it!
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Chicago Cubs ML + team total over 3.5 runs (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
There were many ways I contemplated playing the Chicago Cubs today, but this correlated pairing is my favorite. The Chicago Cubs have won 19 of their last 28 games and they held on to key pieces at the trade deadline instead of selling. That includes Cody Bellinger who has rebounded wonderfully after a few down seasons and put together a year that will surely get him paid this offseason. Bellinger is among a number of Cubs batters seeing the ball well. In fact, over the last 30 days the Cubs rank 2nd in both wOBA and SLG while posting a 136 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Those marks trail only the Braves who are otherworldly, and I expect the Cubs batters to continue their ways today in their matchup against the Kansas City Royals.
Brady Singer will get his 25th start of the season for the Royals, and despite performing a bit better of late he has had an underwhelming season. His struggles have been most apparent when away from his pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium dimensions, as the right-hander has allowed a 6.52 ERA in his 49.2 road innings this season. His road ERA last season was also 1.23 runs higher than at home, showing that this is not a small sample size issue. Singer is primarily a 2-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on his sinker and slider combination, while rarely sprinkling in changeups to left-handed batters. His sinker usage sits over 51% and the Cubs in the last 30 days rank 1st in wOBA against right-handed sinkers. After a .244 xBA and .309 xwOBA allowed against that offering last season, Singer’s opponents have a .292 xBA and .368 xwOBA against it this year. The Cubs also rank 3rd in batting average and 8th in wOBA against right-handed sliders in the last 30 days.
Overall, Singer ranks in just the 1st percentile this season with a 49.6% hard-hit rate allowed. A career-low strikeout rate and increased walk rate have lowered the aspect of his game that helped him succeed last season. While still generating a healthy rate of ground balls, it is his lowest mark of his career which is not a great sign for today’s matchup. The Cubs hit plenty of fly balls and Wrigley Field has wind blowing out today. The wind shifted a bit midway through yesterday’s contest and you could see how much it helped Bobby Witt Jr. get his fly ball out of the park. Behind Singer is a Royals bullpen that ranks bottom 5 in both ERA and FIP across the last 30 days. They traded away key pieces at the before the trade deadline, and their current high-leverage arms were used in yesterday’s contest.
The Cubs bullpen is not overly taxed, and they are a much better unit on paper as well, ranking 4th in WHIP and 8th in ERA across that same 30-day span. They also have the far superior starting pitcher today in Justin Steele, who continues to get undervalued in my opinion. For being a 2-pitch starting pitcher, it doesn’t get much better than Steele who has posted a 2.79 ERA and 3.20 FIP this season. The southpaw ranks in the 72nd percentile or better in xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, while also limiting opponents to a 5.4% BB%, an 89th-percentile mark. Steele generates just as many ground balls as Singer despite not utilizing a sinker. Steele relies on his 4-seam fastball and slider combination, both of which have held opponents to a wOBA of .314 or lower.
The Royals offense has been producing, but most of their production has come against right-handed pitching. Against lefties in the last 30 days, they rank just 21st in wOBA with a league low BB% and an wRC+ of 79. Nobody in the lineup has ever faced Steele in an MLB game which furthers his advantage the first time through the order where he already holds opponents to a .548 OPS. The Cubs are 9-1 in Steele’s last 10 starts, and he has recorded a win himself in 13 of his 22 outings this season. At +140 odds his record a win prop has some value, but this is my favorite way to attack the game as I look for his bats to give him ample run support. The Cubs have scored 4 or more runs in 32 of the last 37 games they have won this season.
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