Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s article did not go as planned. With a long 162-game season spanning over half the year, betting MLB every day can be a grind, but you just have to roll with the punches of variance and continue on. Today’s slate is showing less value on the surface, but there is still a play I am a big fan of. Let’s get back on track with today’s best MLB player prop bet, and make sure you also read our MLB picks for every game today.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) over 6.5 strikeouts (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
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Kevin Gausman has performed as the ace of this Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff this season, contributing largely to their playoff chances. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 3.04 ERA across his 139 innings pitched with a 2.72 FIP and 3.05 SIERA. That FIP ranks 1st among all qualified pitchers this season while his SIERA is 2nd behind only Spencer Strider. Gausman has allowed a worse batted-ball profile this year, ranking in just the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and 14th percentile in barrel rate, but everything else he does is nearly flawless. The former 4th overall draft pick possesses some of the best strikeout capabilities of any arm in the sport, showcased by his 95th percentile strikeout rate this season, and today I am more than willing to bet on those talents given the matchup at hand.
Gausman gets ahead of batters with first-pitch strikes 63.2% of the time. This allows him to then dance outside the zone with his slider early in counts, and his splitter whenever he wants. That splitter has an argument for the single nastiest pitch in the sport, especially considering he uses the offering 38.5% of the time while still getting the results he does. His splitter has allowed a .180 xBA and .224 xwOBA this season while inducing a 42.4% whiff rate and 103 strikeouts on its own. He uses that offering against batters of either handedness and with 2 strikes the pitch usage jumps to 55.6%. In the first matchup against the Phillies this season back in May, 5 of his 9 strikeouts were from his splitter with the other 4 on his electric 4-seam fastball. For a starting pitcher to be able to drop his arsenal to 2 pitches with 2 strikes and find the success he has is a testament to how deadly his 4-seamer is as well. That offering sits 94.5 mph on average, but he rears it up to an average of 95.8 mph with 2 strikes, adding extra life in the zone. His splitter and 4-seamer play very well off each other, and the Phillies struggle against right-handed 4-seamers as is, posting the 8th-highest K% this season.
In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Phillies have a 24.2% K%, tied for the 9th-highest mark. Their swinging strike rate in that span is the 6th-highest, and Gausman’s 13.2% swinging strike rate on the season ranks 78th percentile. In his last 5 starts, he has generated a SwStr% of 14.6%, 16.1%, 16.2%, 13.6% and 14.4% respectively. He had a 15.2% swinging strike rate against the Phillies in the first matchup as well. Gausman is also at home for this game where he had been deadly this season, recording 100 strikeouts in only 69.2 IP compared to 83 Ks in 69.1 road innings. The right-hander will be on 6 days of rest for this game for just the 3rd time this season, but he has surpassed this 6.5 line in each of the first 2 starts. With Toronto having tomorrow off, and having had Monday off, their bullpen is fresh for this game. That combined with his extra day of rest could result in closer to 90 pitches than 100, but with his 99.5 pitches per start average on the season, we could very well still have a massive workload if he is pitching well. Homeplate umpire Alfonso Marquez is also generally a pitcher-friendly umpire with a tendency to lean into called strikes off the plate.
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