Javan Shouey
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Wednesday’s slate of MLB action is an interesting one with several matchups worth laying eyes on. From a betting perspective, I will look to target Walker Buehler of the Dodgers as he makes his return to the major league level against a quality opponent in the Milwaukee Brewers. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bet for today, while you can also check out our MLB picks for Wednesday, August 14.
Walker Buehler (LAD) over 4.5 hits allowed (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Walker Buehler was a Cy Young candidate before injuries began to plague his career, and the right-hander has only made 20 MLB starts since the beginning of the 2022 season. Among those 20 starts, 8 came this year in unimpressive fashion. The right-hander posted a 5.84 ERA, 6.07 FIP, 12.5% K-BB% and 1.51 WHIP among his first 37 innings this season, allowing 27 runs with 24 earned against his record. Buehler has allowed 46 hits in those 37 frames, seeing his opponents record 5 or more base hits in 7 of his 8 outings. This includes 6 or more hits allowed in each of his last 5 starts before hitting the injured list with a hip ailment. Buehler did make 3 minor-league rehab outings in an attempt to knock off some rust, but the right-hander allowed 15 hits and 8 earned runs in the first 2 of those 3 starts. He worked his way up to 86 and 85 pitches in the last 2 outings and should have a full leash for his start against Milwaukee today.
On the year, Buehler ranks in just the 11th percentile in xBA. This is the result of a 34th-percentile average exit velocity, and his inability to win with whiffs has led to a ton of contact. Buehler ranks in just the 2nd percentile in whiff rate this season and now draws a Brewers lineup that has been hitting right-handed pitching well. Since the all-star break, Milwaukee ranks 8th in wOBA with a 117 wRC+ and the 9th-highest average against right-handed pitchers. Nick Martinez did just shut them down, but the last 5 right-handed starting pitchers to face them prior all allowed 5 or more hits. When on the road this season, Buehler has allowed 24 hits in his 16 innings of work, and now he must pitch on the road with added rust against a quality opponent. With how often Buehler lives inside the strike zone this should be a more than attainable number for Milwaukee.
