Javan Shouey
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The trade deadline is over and certain roster have changed rather significantly. This, combined with the recent all-star break will continue to make season-long numbers less important as the season goes on. It will be important to keep an eye out for how roster changes can open up betting opportunities for the remainder of the season. As for today, there are 14 games including 6 that feature winning records on both sides. Let’s take a look at my 2 favorite prop bets for today’s slate!
Philadelphia Phillies first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.
There was speculation at the trade deadline that Nestor Cortes could end up on a new team, but the southpaw remains with New York to make his 23rd start of the season today. Nestor has been a fan favorite during large stretches of his time with the Yankees, but his numbers away from his home park this year are pretty hard to love. That is unless you are betting against him in those road starts which has been a very profitable angle for bettors this season. Cortes has posted a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 innings away from New York this season. He has allowed a .313 AVG, 34 XBH, and 17 BB in those innings compared to just a .207 AVG, 17 XBH, and 9 BB in 69 innings at home. Nearly all of his underlying metrics take a hit when away from his home park, and today’s matchup is as tough as he has seen this season.
The Phillies haven’t seen a ton of lefties lately, facing just 8 southpaw starters during the month of July, but during that sample they have posted the 4th best wOBA and a 139 wRC+. On the year they rank 1st in wOBA with a 119 wRC+ and in theory they should become even more lethal with the addition of Austin Hays at the trade deadline. Hays has been a lefty masher throughout his career with a 117 wRC+ against left-handers, and that production has continued this season with a 143 wRC+ in a brief 72 PA sample. Having been traded from the AL East, Hays has the most experience head-to-head against Cortes, facing him 22 times in the past. While he hasn’t crushed in that sample, his presence will help extend this Phillies lineup and eliminate what has been a weak spot for them this season.
The Phillies are likely to roll with 6 right-handed batters today to benefit from Cortes’ struggles against right-handers. Nestor has allowed a .335 wOBA and 4.39 FIP to right-handers this season, and the left-handers he will face are no easy task either. Kyle Schwarber (196) and Bryce Harper (169) lead Philadelphia in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, and Bryson Stott is a competitive at-bat as well lower in the lineup. With temperatures in the high-80’s and double-digit MPH wind blowing out in the 2nd most wind-receptive park, I like the chances of Philadelphia scoring early on in this game. Cortes has an earned runs prop of 3.5 and an outs recorded line of 15.5, and we need just 3 runs in the first 5 innings including any potential unearned runs.
Taj Bradley (TBR) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-106)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 1u.
Taj Bradley has been exceptional this season, and figures to be a crucial piece of the organization moving forward both this season, and next. Tampa Bay sold several pieces of their roster for cheaper assets with more team control, a move the franchise has does often in the past with a solid track record of success. With the team sitting 3 games over .500 and just 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot, some people were surprised to see so many pieces dealt away, but the organization believes in their ability to develop young talent that can replace pieces that they believe are overvalued. For the record, I think their trade return for Isaac Paredes was terrific, and Christopher Morel is exactly the type of player they love getting their hands on.
As for Bradley, the 23-year-old right-hander has been among the best pitchers in the sport throughout his last 9 starts. Dating back to his start against Baltimore on June 8, Bradley has allowed just 5 earned runs across a span of 55 innings. His 0.82 ERA in that span leads all of MLB, while his 65 strikeouts in that span are tied with Paul Skenes for the 4th most. On the season Bradley has posted a 30.0% strikeout rate which ranks 90th percentile, but at home that rate spikes even further to 36.4% across a sample of 48 innings. The right-hander has cleared this lofty 6.5 mark in 8 of 14 starts this season overall, but when at home he has 7 or more in 7 of 8 tries. His only under in that sample was against the Kansas City Royals who have been consistently one of the harder teams to strikeout this season, and he still recorded 6 in that outing.
With 11, 8, 11, and 8 punch outs in his last 4 home starts, Bradley enters this game in exceptional form, and his wide array of pitches should help generate whiffs in this matchup. Among his 97 strikeouts this season, 29 have come on his electric 4-seam fastball. Each of his 3 secondary offerings generate a whiff rate of at least 32.2%, however, and he is more than capable of dominating a game with any of those pitches. Miami was more strikeout averse at the beginning of the season but have fallen apart more at the plate lately. Across 631 PA against right-handed pitchers in July, the Marlins posted the 6th highest K% at 25.0%. They made several swaps at the deadline to change the look of their lineup, but new additions like Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers project as high K% bats. It remains to be seen exactly who will be in Miami’s lineup today, but I like this spot for Bradley enough to pull the trigger beforehand.
