Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s slate of MLB action is an intriguing one with several tantalizing starting pitching matchups on tap. There are plenty of angles worth looking into, but this article will highlight my favorite two bets for today’s games. Let’s dive in!
Texas Rangers first 7 innings team total over 2.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 1u.
Kevin Gausman has been struggling in his home ballpark this season. The veteran right-hander has tossed 53 innings across his 10 home outings this season, posting a putrid 6.96 ERA with extremely poor underlying metrics. His home ERA is so large due to allowing 3 or more earned runs in each of his last 7 home starts. This includes 4 runs within 6.2 innings against a mediocre Tigers lineup in his first start since the all-star break. Gausman has seen significant decreases in his whiff rate this season, while also losing some velocity on his 4-seam fastball. That fastball has been getting knocked around this year and his lack of success with that offering puts more pressure on locating his splitter.
Today Gausman will face a Texas Rangers lineup that is seemingly rounding into form. In the month of July against right-handed pitching Texas ranks 10th in hard-hit rate, 8th in BB%, 10th in K%, and have a 102 wRC+. Those numbers may not blow you away, but they have an extensive history against Gausman with 117 combined plate appearances from active Ranger bats against the right-hander all time. In that sample they are hitting .288 with an .887 OPS, and this season they have been very good against right-handed splitters. Against that offering this season Texas sits 6th in hard-hit rate and 3rd in wOBA.
Gausman is allowing far more fly balls than previous seasons, and that is not ideal with a 5th percentile barrel rate. His quality of contact metrics is lacking this year, ranking 18th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and 19th percentile in hard-hit rate. This has resulted in a 15th percentile xBA, and his struggles have been more apparent when facing left-handed batters. Texas features 6 left-handed batters in their regular lineup against right-handed pitching, including the bottom of the order which should help extend innings. I think Texas can get to Gausman early in this matchup but prefer the first 7 innings team total as his struggles the 3rd time through the order stand out. Gausman has faced 117 batters the 3rd time through this season, allowing a .307 AVG and .865 OPS with a decreased strikeout rate in that sample.
Erick Fedde (CWS) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Erick Fedde has been lights out for the White Sox this season. The former top prospect of the Nationals struggled in his first MLB tenure, consistently posting undesirable ERA’s with poor underlying metrics. The right-hander pitched in the KBO last season, tossing 180.1 innings while earning the pitching version of the triple crown in that league. His revamped pitching arsenal and approach has helped his success carry over to the major league level. Fedde has been particularly successful this season when pitching in his home park, and he will benefit from an advantageous matchup today.
Overall, Fedde has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 20 starts this season, and 7 of his 8 home outings. His overall ERA of 2.98 drops to just 1.47 at home, and his WHIP drops 0.18 points and his K-BB% increases by 6%. Fedde utilizes a 4-pitch arsenal with each offering garnering at least 19.3% usage. His sweeper has been particularly lethal, holding opponents to an xBA under .200 while generating a solid 26.5% whiff rate. Fedde is not a massive strikeout rate arm, but a matchup against the Seattle Mariners tends to fix that for most pitchers. Despite 5 or fewer strikeouts in each of his last 5 starts the right-hander has a K prop of 6.5 for today’s matchup against the whiff-happy Mariners.
Since July 1 Seattle ranks 27th in wOBA with a 90 wRC+ and the highest K% in baseball when facing right-handed pitching. Their low swing rate can set them behind in counts with regularity and their lack of hard contact as a team is leading to easy outs for defenders. Fedde pitched against Seattle back in the beginning of June, tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball while allowing only 6 batters to reach base. We could see Randy Arozarena make his Mariners debut in this game, and they did perform well in yesterday’s game at the plate, but this pricing on backing Fedde seems too generous to pass up.
