Javan Shouey
Show Bio
All 30 MLB teams are in action on Wednesday’s slate. This is the time of the year where you begin to see regular opponents for the final time and the intensity is certainly picking up heading into the trade deadline. Numerous pitching matchups caught my eye as a fan this morning, but my best betting angle comes in the Phillies vs Orioles game.
Let’s dive in!
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Baltimore Orioles first 5 innings +0.5 runs (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130.
I seemingly continue to bet on Kyle Bradish every time he takes the mound in some form or another. His elite recent output, and the fact he continues to get undervalued in the betting market has resulted in me watching at least large parts of his last 5 starts. The 2nd-year right-hander seems far more poised on the mound than his experience would suggest and he has emerged as the ace of the Orioles — the team with the best record in the American League. Bradish has smartly cut down his 4-seam fastball usage from 44.5% last season to 26.1%, instead opting for a sinking fastball. The sinker has an even higher put away rate that his 4-seamer from 2022 while allowing a far lower wOBA and helping steady his ground-ball rate. He is leaning in and relying heavily on his nasty breaking balls more, as well, which has paid off so far. His slider leads the way with 30.3% usage, holding opponents to a .169 AVG and .208 wOBA while generating a 35.4% whiff rate. Bradish also has a disgusting curveball that generates an arsenal high 25.6% put-away rate and has allowed a .159 wOBA.
For the seasonm Bradish has posted a likely unsustainable 3.05 ERA — but his 3.52 FIP and 3.98 SIERA are still impressive marks. His 16.9 K-BB% is a respectable mark, as well. Bradish is currently in the best form of his career, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 7 starts with 8 combined earned runs allowed in that span. In terms of handedness, his splits are very similar — allowing slightly more production to left-handed batters, but nothing too discernible or worrisome. While the Phillies have a good lineup that is deep when on their game, their recent form is not the best against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days they have 673 PA against right-handers while generating the 5th worst wOBA and a wRC+ of 81. Favorable hitting conditions may help them out a bit, but I look for another solid outing from Bradish today.
Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies, making his 14th start of the 2023 campaign and first against the Orioles. The southpaw has had an up-and-down season, starting poorly with a 7.13 ERA through 4 May appearances. He then shoved for the entire month of June with a remarkable 1.08 ERA across 33.1 IP. Suarez has since come back to Earth, allowing 5, 4, 3 and 4 runs in his last 4 outings and posting a 6.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in that span. Despite facing low walk rate teams for 3 of those 4 starts in the Nationals, Marlins and Guardians, Suarez has allowed 12 walks this month and has issued 2 or more free passes in 7 of his last 8 starts. When compared to Bradish, Suarez has an ERA a full run higher at 4.07 while his 4.32 SIERA and 3.84 FIP are also higher marks than his counterpart. He also has just a 12.8% K-BB%, 4.1% lower than Bradish. His high ground-ball rate thanks to his sinker-heavy arsenal helps him compete even with his walks issue, but Baltimore has the 10th lowest ground-ball rate against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days. In that same span, across 210 PA, the Orioles rank 4th in hard-hit rate while ranking 14th in wOBA and posting a wRC+ of 112.
Suarez struggles with right-handed batters specifically, allowing a .286 AVG and .347 wOBA compared to a .196 AVG and .232 wOBA against lefty bats. Baltimore has the luxury of rolling out 9 right-handed batters if it wants to, which would put constant pressure on the Phillies’ starter. Suarez also happens to be at his worst the first time through the order, allowing a .324 AVG and .812 OPS. Those numbers dip each time through as he makes his adjustments. Bradish is the opposite, allowing a .188 AVG and .542 OPS the first time through with the majority of his struggles coming that 3rd time. Given this is a 5-inning bet, we may only need to survive a couple PA that 3rd time through against the Orioles’ right-hander. Ultimately, I believe this game should be more evenly priced and needing just a tie through 5 innings to win with my preferred side is a play I will gladly take.
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