Javan Shouey
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This is personally one of my favorite times of the MLB season as a fan. Teams are deciding whether to buy or sell at the impending trade deadline based on their performance this week, and this is really when the intensity of the season begins to pick up. All 30 MLB teams are in action today, which provides us with plenty of betting opportunities. My favorite betting angle and MLB player prop comes in the Padres vs Pirates game, so let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for every game today.
Blake Snell (SD) over 7.5 strikeouts (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
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Blake Snell has stayed under his strikeout total in 2 straight starts, but his underlying metrics have remained impressive while his workload has spiked back up again. Walks have been his downfall this month, issuing a horrible 17 free passes across 21 innings pitched. Despite this glaring issue, the southpaw has still generated a 1.38 K/IP in that span, even higher than his season-long 1.32 mark. The veteran pitcher has amassed a swinging strike rate of at least 15.2% in each of his last 9 starts. That 15.2% mark is his season average and a 93rd percentile number. Snell does all of this despite generating a poor rate of first-pitch strikes, seemingly never getting ahead in counts. With a 7.5 line that can become problematic quickly, but this matchup is one I am more than willing to attack at this line.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been reeling at the plate against left-handed pitching lately. Southpaws have been gashing them with a 26.3% K% in 552 PA since June 1. Since June 22, across a sample of 343 PA, Pittsburgh has struck out 30.9% of the time while posting a measly 7.0% BB% and wRC+ of 74. They like to stack right-handed batters against southpaws regardless of the opponent’s splits, and this was seen by their lineup against Reid Detmers just this Saturday with 9 righties in the order. Detmers recorded 9 strikeouts in that game. Even on Sunday, Tyler Anderson recorded a 17.5% swinging strike rate against the Pirates, up from his season average of 12.3%. Other strong recent outings from lefties include Braxton Garrett with 13, Jesus Luzardo 9, Julio Urias 8, Logan Allen 8, and our guy Blake Snell had 10 against the Pirates in their first matchup of the season last month. We can expect more of the same tonight and Snell has a 3.3% higher K% against right-handed bats since the start of last season.
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This recent slip in plate discipline is due to the call-ups of numerous rookie bats. The Pirates have been regularly starting 5 rookies in a row at the bottom of the order, and while these guys are talented prospects, it is leading to some miserable innings for Pirate fans at times. Yesterday the bats were able to get to Yu Darvish, and they will show flashes like that as a lineup with increased variance, but their game-to-game floor outcomes are among the worst of any team. In the last 27 games (8 series), Pittsburgh has the 4th-worst chase contact rate, 6th-worst zone contact rate and the 2nd-highest CSW% behind only Minnesota. This is problematic against Snell, who allows a chase contact rate 15.5% below league average, a zone contact rate 5.1% below league average and generates a 78th percentile CSW%.
Part of what makes Snell so tough to deal with is his 4-pitch arsenal, all of which can be used for the 3rd strike. His 4-seam fastball sets up his game and leads the way with 50.7% usage and has accounted for 48 of his strikeouts. Snell’s curveball is lethal, allowing only 8 hits all year despite 17.5% usage. He has generated a 57.6% whiff rate and 36.4% put away on that offering leading to an arsenal high 60 punch outs. His changeup and slider generate 49.2% and 52.3% whiff rates respectively and have accounted for another 35 combined Ks. Pittsburgh is likely going to struggle against the curveball specifically, as they rank just 27th in wOBA against left-handed curveballs this season while striking out at the 6th-highest rate. I also am comfortable with this line as Snell saw his workload back to 106 pitches in his last start. We only lost the over 7.5 against Philadelphia because of an unexpected short leash, but that was his only start with fewer than 97 pitches since June 11 (averages 97.6 per start on the season). Look for another strong outing from the Padres’ left-hander today.
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