Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s MLB slate is packed with potential entertainment, but for this article we are focusing in on 2 games. Freddy Peralta draws an enticing matchup against a strikeout prone Tigers lineup while the Giants look to continue their good form against southpaw pitching. Let’s dive in!
Freddy Peralta (MIL) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-133)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Freddy Peralta is a true strikeout artist, and today we are requesting the right-hander to record 7 or more strikeouts in an advantageous matchup. The Brewers’ ace draws a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, a lineup with the 4th highest CSW% across the last 30 days of play. When isolating their performance in that span to solely right-handed pitchers, we can see their strikeout rate of 23.5% ranking 12th worst in MLB. Across the entire year they have the 7th highest K% against right-handers. Part of their problem with containing the punch outs is their patience. While it can pay off to take some pitches and wait for the one you want, there is a point where being too passive can hurt. Detroit has the league’s lowest first-pitch swing rate at just 25.6% which allows opposing arms to jump ahead early in counts with regularity. Against an arm that can generate whiffs like Peralta can, this could be a spot for massive strikeout production.
Peralta ranks 8th best among qualified pitchers this season in swinging strike rate, while his overall whiff rate ranks 94th percentile. He doesn’t thrive on chases, but instead is elite at winning in the zone with the 10th lowest zone contact rate allowed. This has resulted in 7 or more strikeouts recorded in 9 of his 12 starts, and 8 or more in 4 of them. Peralta has recorded 11 strikeouts on 2 different occasions, showcasing a bit of his ceiling. He has thrived at striking out both left-handed and right-handed batters, which gives me confidence in this spot regardless of the lineup Detroit utilizes. His outs recorded line is set at 17.5 today with heavy juice towards the over, implying that he is likely to complete 6 full frames of work. With 89 punchouts in 67.1 innings pitched so far this season, and an average of 93.9 pitches per start, he should have enough volume to surpass this line. Factor in that the pitcher-friendly Jeremie Rehak is calling balls and strikes and there is more than enough value here for me even at this juiced price.
San Francisco Giants team total over 3.5 (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Andrew Heaney will make his 13th appearance and 12th start of the season today at home against the San Francisco Giants. The left-handed veteran has had an up-and-down career, earning an all-star nod with the Dodgers in 2022 and a World Series ring last season with Texas, but posting several below average seasons as well. This year his ERA+ sits at 98, a just below average mark, but his overall profile appears worse. Heaney ranks just 15th percentile with a 44.8% hard-hit rate, and his inability to keep the ball on the ground with consistency can result in issues. He ranks 16th percentile in GB%, and his .258 xBA ranks 32nd percentile.
Heaney is an arm that relies heavily on his ability to draw opponents out of the zone, and his success in doing so has resulted in an improved walk rate this season. Still, Heaney did walk 9.4% of the batters he faced just last season, and this matchup against San Francisco is not ideal for drawing chases. The Giants have recorded the 2nd lowest chase rate across the last 30 days of play, and even when they do chase they have the 5th highest chase contact rate in that span. Their in-zone contact rate ranks 4th best in that sample of play, and they have mashed southpaw pitching primarily during this time. Against left-handers in the last month, they rank 3rd in wOBA while producing an 11% BB% and a 142 wRC+. They also rank 7th in FB% and 5th in hard-hit rate which plays directly against Heaney’s weaknesses.
The Giants benefit from being the road team, as they avoid their pitcher-friendly home ballpark and are locked in to bat for all 9 innings regardless of score. The Rangers bullpen ranks just 23rd in ERA and 19th in FIP across the last 30 days of play as well, which should result in scoring opportunities throughout the ballgame. Active Giants batters have also had success against Heaney in the past, logging a combined .796 OPS through 73 plate appearances.
