Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s article resulted in a 1-1 day but left us without an apex with both pitchers falling way short of their strikeout props. For Shane Bieber’s under, that was good. For Mitch Keller’s over, that wasn’t so good. Luckily for today’s article, I found a bet that should provide a little more entertainment value. Let’s dive in! And don’t forget to check out all of our MLB predictions for Wednesday.
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Elly De La Cruz (CIN) to record a stolen base (+285) (0.25U)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +270 odds.
Betting on someone to record a stolen base takes into account a number of factors and is a prop market with a ton of variance. This is why I have typically stayed clear of this type of bet. In this case, however, I am finding value. Cincinnati Reds rookie infielder Elly De La Cruz made his MLB debut yesterday. The 6’5″ 21-year-old switch-hitting speedster is the 4th ranked prospect in all of Major League Baseball and didn’t disappoint in his debut. De La Cruz walked twice, roped a 112.8 MPH double on an 0-2 count, and scored 2 of the Reds 9 runs during a 9-8 walk-off win for Cincinnati. Only 7 of the 23 pitches that he saw were located inside the strike zone, showing a hesitancy to leave the ball over the plate against him. He should get solid chances to put the ball in play against Noah Syndergaard and his 6th percentile xBA, but if Thor is nibbling as well, we will take the free pass.
Syndergaard not only lets batters reach base often, but he is the league’s worst pitcher at holding runners. The veteran right-hander has allowed a league high 16 steals while only successfully stopping an attempt 1 time. Last season, he allowed a league high 30 steals while catching only 3 runners. For his career, he has allowed 185 steals on 207 attempts. Cincinnati has the 3rd most stolen bases of any team in baseball this year, and now have a new weapon. De La Cruz stole 47 bags in AA last season while getting caught just 6 times. He was caught 6 times already in AAA through 17 attempts this season, but 17 attempts in 38 games is certainly noteworthy. His speed is off the charts, and he reached 30.4 ft/sec on his double in yesterday’s game. If the ball wasn’t hit so hard, it would have been a triple.
Obviously, we want De La Cruz to get on base without someone in front of him. Batting in the cleanup spot as he did yesterday is a decent spot to get that chance in the event of a 1-2-3 first inning. Even if he does have someone on in front of him, the Reds have shown a willingness to attempt the double steal. Hitting conditions in Great American Ballpark are conducive to a high run-scoring environment, and there should be plenty of chances for the rookie to get on base. At +270 odds or better, I am more than willing to invest a small bet on what should at very least be an entertaining sweat in an advantageous matchup.
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