Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s MLB slate of action is sure to entertain the masses given the large number of games available to consume, and the quality of some of the matchups. From a betting perspective there has been value in backing the New York Mets lately, and today’s prop article will focus on 2 ways in which we can do just that. Let’s dive in!
Framber Valdez (HOU) under 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-133)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 0.5u.
New York Mets first 7 innings team total over 2.5 (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 0.5u.
The New York Mets have been absolutely mashing southpaw pitching for quite some time now, and today we will look to take advantage of their recent form by backing them against Framber Valdez. Valdez is a quality starter in this league but has seen regression in his performance from the standards he set in recent seasons. I believe this is a matchup where we can look to take advantage. Framber draws a tough matchup against a New York offense that ranks 1st in wOBA against southpaw pitching across the last 30 days with a .424 mark. In that sample they sit 1st in AVG, 1st in SLG, 3rd in hard-hit rate, and have a wRC+ of 183. Despite their elite power numbers and run production in that span, the Mets lineup is also a k-averse unit, striking out at the 5th lowest rate against lefties during the last 30 days.
Among the 22 left-handed starting pitchers to face New York this season, only 6 of them have recorded 6 or more strikeouts. This includes 8 of the last 10 southpaws they have seen remaining under this 5.5 total. Regardless of handedness faced during the last 30 days the Mets have the 7th lowest swinging strike rate and the 9th highest in-zone contact rate. These traits should serve them well in this matchup against Framber. Valdez has remained under his 5.5 strikeout prop in 9 of his 13 starts this season, including 4 of his 6 starts on the road. On the season his 10.4% swinging strike rate ranks just 40th percentile, and he has recorded a SwStr% of 8.7% or lower in 5 of his last 6 outings.
New York has been putting the ball on the bat with regularity and the results have been terrific, scoring 3 or more runs within the first 7 innings against 10 of the last 12 games they saw a left-handed starting pitcher. Framber is someone able to work deep into games with his high ground ball rate and per batter efficiency, yet his groundball rate has decreased during his last handful of starts, and the amount of hard contact he is allowing is a bit concerning. On the season Valdez ranks just 4th percentile in hard-hit rate and 3rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed. His 32nd percentile xBA and league average walk rate should give the Mets opportunities with runners in scoring position, and I look for New York to continue their solid form in this spot.
