Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Weekend baseball is here, and MLB fans have all-day entertainment on today’s slate. With the Cardinals and Cubs facing off in London, Stateside fans will get early afternoon action with games following throughout the day. While that matchup is certainly the marquee game of the day, I believe I have found value elsewhere on today’s card. Let’s dive in!
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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
This is a play we have attacked numerous times this season, and while most of those occurrences have been against southpaw pitching, this time we are attacking a right-hander. Luis Severino has struggled mightily this season. After only 75 pitches across 18 batters faced in his season debut, he has seen his training wheels come off with 25 or more total batters faced in 4 of his last 5 starts. He hasn’t been effective on the mound, however, posting a 9.16 ERA across 4 starts this month. None of the 4 outings have exceeded 5 innings of work while the Yankees have allowed 7, 4, 6, and 4 runs in the first 5 innings of those respective games. In only 30 innings of work Severino has allowed 12 barrels and 8 home runs. His 12.5%-barrel rate ranks in the 8th percentile while his xBA and xSLG are also in the 10th percentile or worse. A career-worst 44.8% hard-hit rate can be partly attributed to his atrocious 4-seam fastball. Severino is throwing that pitch 53% of the time this season while opponents are hitting .328 with a .625 SLG and .436 wOBA against it.
Not only is Severino allowing a high rate of hard contact, and a high rate of contact overall, but his command is also below average. The right-hander has a 29th-percentile chase rate and 9.3% BB%. His career-low 20.0% K% is partly due to less movement both horizontally and vertically on his slider this season. That pitch is generating a 14.8% put-away rate which is nearly half the rate from just last season. His hard-hit rate is worrisome in any matchup, but especially against a Rangers offense ranking 1st in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span they also rank 4th in both wOBA and ISO while posting a wRC+ of 123. Texas has a well-rounded lineup with their bottom of the order being talented enough to be the top of the order in other lineups. They also mix right and left-handed batters well, both of which have had success against Severino this season. A career-low ground-ball rate and career-worst FIP are not encouraging signs for the Yankees pitcher. Ballpark Pal projects Yankees Stadium for a 24% boost in home run chances today. I am fine with the Rangers full game team total but prefer isolating Severino in the first 5 innings.
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Josiah Gray (WAS) under 17.5 outs recorded (-130)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Josiah Gray had an encouraging start to his season, posting back-to-back months with a sub-3 ERA in April and May. A new cutter was helping him change his pitch mix and it took a couple of months for batters to adjust to his new offering. Gray has struggled mightily this month, however, allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his 4 outings. The 25-year-old right-hander has undeniable raw talent, but his game-to-game outputs can vary to a high degree. Part of what makes Gray hard to back, and attractive to fade, is his lack of consistent command. Gray began the season generating an improved rate of first-pitch strikes, but his season-long rate is back down to 57.3%, a career-worst mark and 3.5% lower than the league average. This leads to 3.97 pitches per plate appearance which ranks 30th-most among 111 qualified pitchers. He finishes those long counts with walks far too often, issuing free passes to 10.5% of the batters he faces. This is his 3rd straight season with a BB% between 10.2% and 10.8%. Not only does Gray allow a ton of free passes, but opponents are also getting on base against him via the bat. Gray ranks 44th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG and barrel rate.
Tonight, Gray will face a surging San Diego Padres offense. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Padres rank 9th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 108. During that span they have the 2nd highest BB%, and on the season they average the 3rd most pitches per plate appearance of any MLB team. In those last 30 days San Diego has the league’s lowest chase rate and the 11th highest chase contact rate. They are seeing the ball very well. In all, 7 of the 9 projected bats in tonight’s lineup average 3.98 pitches per plate appearance or more. The league average mark is 3.91. Padres in tonight’s projected lineup with a below-average rate of P/PA are Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, who know what they are doing. Their aggressiveness is more than accepted in this lineup of patient bats around them, and the damage they can create is irreplaceable. The Nationals’ bullpen doesn’t have a single arm that has thrown twice in the last 3 days, and they should have their full unit available in relief. With sharper books having this line closer to -167, there is also market value in this number alone. Gray has been held under this 6-inning mark in 9 of his 15 starts this year including 5 of his last 6 and in a tough matchup tonight. I am looking for more of the same.
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