Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s prop article was not my best work, but the beauty of MLB is daily action and the opportunity to bounce back quickly. With all 30 teams scheduled to take the field today, and numerous series coming to an end, MLB fans should have plenty of entertaining action to consume. Our featured bet takes place in the early afternoon so let’s dive in, but make sure you also read our MLB picks for every game.
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Zac Gallen (ARI) over 6.5 strikeouts (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Some people follow home and road splits religiously. While I always check them and take them into consideration, one factor is not enough to steer me away from an angle I otherwise like. I bring this up because of Zac Gallen’s early-season road struggles this year. The 27-year-old right-hander, who finished 5th in NL Cy Young voting last season, has seen his sparkling 1.00 ERA at home balloon to 5.79 when on the road. Really, the only eyebrow-raising road starts were against the Pirates and Tigers. The start against Detroit was his 2nd time on 6 days’ rest, and neither one went well, allowing 10 earned runs in a combined 10.1 IP. Both of those starts happened to be on the road, severely harming his road ERA given the small 37.1 IP sample as a whole. The first one was his season debut in a tough spot at Dodger Stadium. In the start against Pittsburgh, his command was off from the very start and sometimes you just don’t have your best stuff.
Gallen bounced back from his start against the Tigers very nicely last time. He was at home, but he shut down a Cleveland offense that had been enjoying a bit of a surge in June against right-handed pitching. Entering that game against Gallen, the Guardians ranked 6th in wOBA with a 117 wRC+ across a 17-day span of facing 11 right-handed starting pitchers. Gallen shut them down with 7 innings of 1-run ball, allowing 0 walks to his 7 strikeouts. Getting 7 strikeouts against the Guardians is no small feat, as Cleveland holds the league’s 2nd-lowest K% to RHP this season at 19.0%, and the 2nd-lowest in the last 30 days at 18.6% despite 7 from Gallen. The right-hander was dominant in that outing, posting a 43.3% O-Swing% and 18.9% swinging strike rate. On the season, Gallen has a 12.8% swinging strike rate, a mark that ranks in the 72nd percentile. He gets ahead in counts early with a 66.8% first-pitch strike rate which allows him to expand the zone and draw chases. His 31.6% chase rate ranks 79th percentile. On those chases opponents connect at a rate 11.8% below league average. He also has the ability to win in the zone, either with his 73rd-percentile whiff rate or on a called 3rd strike. Gallen has 19 looking strikeouts this season, the 35th most in MLB, and his 29.4% CSW% ranks 65th percentile.
As for the matchup, Gallen draws a favorable one that he has already taken advantage of this season. The Milwaukee Brewers rank 27th in K% this season against right-handed pitching at 24.8%. In the last 30 days, across a sample of 752 PA, that rate has spiked to 27.7%. In those same 30 days, they have the league’s 2nd highest CSW% behind only Minnesota. 14 of the last 19 right-handed starting pitchers have cleared their respective lines against Milwaukee including each of the last 8. That includes massive strikeout performances such as Jack Flaherty (10), Zach Eflin (8), Logan Webb (11), Kevin Gausman (11), Pablo Lopez (9), Mitch Keller (7), Bailey Ober (7), and Merrill Kelly (7.) Even unexpected performances from the likes of J.P. France (8), Kyle Gibson (7), Kyle Bradish (10), Luis Ortiz (6) and Ryne Nelson (6) have happened in that span. Nelson’s 6 strikeouts last night caught my eye in particular, as I watched that game, having his under in outs recorded. Nelson is not a high strikeout rate guy, posting a 8.47 K/9 in AAA last season and a 6.46 K/9 through 18 MLB starts.
Milwaukee struggles against many forms of right-handed pitching, but they are particularly susceptible against right-handed 4-seamers and curveballs. On the year the Brewers have the 7th and 4th-highest strikeout rates against those respective offerings. In the last 30 days, the Brewers are 27th in RV/100 against 4-seamers and 24th against curveballs. In the first matchup against Milwaukee, Gallen recorded 11 strikeouts with 7 of them on his curveball alone. That curveball has an arsenal high 28.3% put away rate while generating a silly 46.1% whiff rate. Not only does his curveball generate those amazing numbers, but it makes his 4-seamer far more lethal. Those pitches are released from the same slot and follow along the same flight path before his curveball drops an average of 51.4 inches vertically. This leads to both poor swings on the curveball, and either being late or taking the 4-seamer for strikes. Gallen performs extremely similarly across the board regardless of the handedness faced. His 26.4% K% against left-handers and 26.7% K% against right-handers should play well against this balanced Milwaukee lineup that likely sees 4 lefties and 5 righties. Look for Gallen to exceed this strikeout total and give the division-leading Diamondbacks another quality outing.
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