Javan Shouey
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With a 15-game MLB slate loaded full of fantastic matchups, Tuesday’s MLB action should entertain baseball fans from everywhere. The battle for Los Angeles, Justin Verlander’s return to Houston, and the start of a Braves vs Phillies series are the largest headlines. The pitching matchup that stands out to me the most, however, is Nathan Eovaldi against Dylan Cease. That matchup also happens to be the featured play for today’s MLB player prop article. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also read our MLB picks for every game.
Texas Rangers first 5 innings ML over Chicago White Sox (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
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Dylan Cease is an undeniably great talent who has the potential to single-handedly shut this bet down. That being said, the 27-year-old right-hander has taken a step back from his dominant 2022 campaign. Last season the former 6th-round pick crushed his opposition, posting a 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP, .184 xBA, and a 20% K-BB%. This season, however, Cease has regressed to a 4.31 ERA, 4.04 FIP, .246 xBA, and a still good but not great 15.5% K-BB%.
His slider has taken the biggest hit of all the pitches in his arsenal production-wise. That offering held opponents to a .187 wOBA with a 27.8% put-away rate last year. This season opponents have a .299 wOBA with a 20.2% put-away rate. It is still his best pitch but is no longer in discussion for the best pitch in baseball as some may have argued last year. His opponent today, the Texas Rangers, hit sliders extremely well. In the last 30 days, Texas ranks 6th in RV/100 against the slider. Over the course of the season, they sit 1st in that metric, and against right-handed sliders in particular, the Rangers rank 7th in wOBA and 4th in ISO.
Walks have always been a concern for Cease. His career-long 10.6% BB% is in line with his 10.7% mark this season. The difference in his control this season is he is throwing more non-competitive pitches. The result is a 2.9% decrease in his chase rate induced, dropping him from the 69th percentile in that metric last season to the 48th percentile this year. Opponents are able to sit on his fastball, and Cease is using that pitch more this season despite a decrease in velocity. Last season, part of what made Cease so lethal was his ability to rack up strikeouts while also inducing a ton of weak contact. That weak contact is nearly gone, sitting at 1.9%, and his hard-hit rate has skyrocketed to 47.2%, a mark ranking 9th percentile this season.
Texas is 1st in MLB in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching during the last 30 days. During that span, they rank 2nd in wOBA, 3rd in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 128 in 769 PA. Cease will likely find plenty of strikeouts in this game, but his lack of command and hard-hit rate don’t mesh well against the deep and lethal Texas lineup.
Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for Texas and has been even more than what they hoped for when signing him this offseason. His 2.59 ERA is backed by a 2.85 FIP and sub-1 WHIP. An above-average first-pitch strike rate, 5.3% BB%, and 51.8% ground ball rate have helped him remain efficient with his work. The right-hander draws chases at a 59th percentile clip while allowing a chase contact rate 1.6% below league average. That is crucial for this matchup as the White Sox are perhaps the most undisciplined team in the league.
In the last 30 days Chicago has the highest chase rate in MLB at 38.2% while connecting on those chases just 56.6% of the time, the 3rd-lowest rate. Eovaldi has seen his chase rate drop in 3 of his last 4 outings, leading to more walks and unfavorable counts. With this matchup, however, I expect him to regain his form in that department. He is fully capable of winning in the zone as well, allowing a zone contact rate under 80% this season.
The White Sox lineup has been putrid against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, ranking dead last in AVG (.206), wOBA (.271), and wRC+ at 69. During that span, they sit 28th in both hard-hit rate and walk rate with the 4th highest ground ball rate against those right-handers. Tim Anderson has missed the last couple of days and if he were to miss again his absence would be felt at the top of the order. I have bet this with the assumption he plays, given White Sox’ GM Rick Hahn’s comments yesterday saying it is possible Anderson could play this series. He is still day-to-day, however, and if he were to miss that would lead to even more value on this side. Playing Texas for the full game is a solid pivot, but I would rather avoid the bullpens and isolate the starting pitcher matchup.
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George Kirby (SEA) under 1.5 walks / Reid Detmers (LAA) over 1.5 walks (+119) (0.5U)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110 odds.
George Kirby is the epitome of elite command. In 3,286 pitches across 865 batters faced, the 25-year-old right-hander has allowed only 28 walks, good for a remarkable 3.2% walk rate. That rate lowers when isolating his performance this season alone. In 13 starts for the Mariners this season, Kirby has issued 6 combined free passes with no more than 1 walk allowed in any start. That even includes starts against the walk-happy Padres and Pirates where he struggled, allowing a combined 12 earned runs across 8.1 IP.
Dating back to last season, Kirby has only allowed 2 or more walks twice in 38 regular-season starts. Kirby has the highest strike rate among qualified pitchers with his 71.4% mark narrowly edging out Joe Ryan. The 1st round pick from the 2019 draft gets ahead in counts with a 70.9% first-pitch strike rate. He pounces ahead 0-2 on 33.6% of the batters he faces, the 6th-highest mark among those qualified pitchers. Kirby has found himself in a 3-0 count just 4 times this season and threw a strike on all 4 of those next pitches.
While he does live in the zone 9.4% more than league average, Kirby doesn’t just throw the ball down the middle of the plate. He is extraordinary at painting the corners with an edge% from baseball savant nearly 3% higher than the league average. His 79th percentile chase rate also allows him to expand the zone on the opposition and his high chase contact rate leads to a ton of ground ball outs and poor contact. Attacking batters early and often is Kirby’s mindset, and he should have a strong outing today against a depleted Yankees lineup.
Aaron Judge and Harrison Bader both remain out for New York while the rest of their lineup is feeling the ill-effects. Not only can Judge change the game when he swings, but his presence also allows his teammates before him to see better pitches. The Yankees have been an aggressive team this season, averaging the 8th-fewest pitches per plate appearance and swinging at an above-average rate of 1st pitches. Their 6.7% BB% against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days ranks as the 6th-lowest mark in the league.
13 of the last 16 non-opener right-handed starting pitchers to face the Yankees have allowed fewer than 2 walks. That includes Kirby himself, who twirled an impressive 8-inning shutout with 0 walks against them last month. Aaron Judge was even in the lineup for that game. Today’s projected lineup for New York has only 2 batters with a walk rate of better than 7.7% against right-handed pitching this season. Look for Kirby’s elite command to once again win.
The 2nd part of this play takes us to Los Angeles for the Angels and Dodgers game. Reid Detmers is a young arm I like but is someone I am seemingly picking on each time he takes the mound. While his strikeout capabilities are terrific, he leans on them heavily to record his outs. This leads to a ton of long counts, and Detmers’ 4.04 pitches per plate appearance rank as the 20th-highest mark among 115 qualifiers. He finishes those counts with walked batters 9.5% of the time, a mark ranking 33rd percentile.
Detmers sits just 74th on that list of qualified pitchers in overall strike rate while at times throwing multiple non-competitive pitches in the same at-bat. He has been pitching solidly of late, holding both Chicago and Texas to 1 earned run each in his last 2 outings. I took his under 17.5 outs in both of those starts, losing once when he landed on 6 innings and winning once when he pitched 5.2 innings. Both of those teams hit left-handed pitching well, yet Detmers was able to last deep into the game compared to his own standards.
We don’t mind a long leash for this prop, however, as he walked 2 or more in each of those games. He has thrown 95 or more pitches in 4 of his last 5 starts with an average of 23.6 batters faced during that stretch. Detmers has allowed 2 or more walks in 10 of his 12 starts this season and 23 of his last 29 when dating back to last year.
The Dodgers rank tied for 5th this season in pitches per plate appearance as a team. Not only do they draw long counts, but they are more than willing to take that 4th ball, ranking 1st in BB% this season against left-handed pitching. Their 11.3% mark on the season remains at 11.1% across the last 30 days. Prior to their last game against a left-handed starter, Los Angeles had drawn 2 or more walks against 11 consecutive non-opener left-handed starting pitchers.
Some teams rank towards the top of the list in BB% thanks to a single batter or 2, but the Dodgers have 5 guys in tonight’s projected lineup with a double-digit BB% against LHP. Mookie Betts, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Vargas, and Austin Barnes are those 5 batters. Even if James Outman or David Peralta are in the lineup for whatever reason against a fellow southpaw, they are also capable of drawing a high rate of free passes.
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