Javan Shouey
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Today’s slate of baseball games should be entertaining throughout as we have a solid mix of day games and contests under the lights. With all 30 MLB teams in action, baseball fans will have a number of options to choose from. The featured play for today’s article highlights a game between the Pirates and Brewers, who are fighting for positioning atop the NL Central. Let’s dive in!
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Mitch Keller (PIT) over 6.5 strikeouts (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Mitch Keller let down bettors 11 days ago in his start against the Oakland Athletics. The 27-year-old right-hander had his least productive strikeout performance of the season, recording only 1 punchout across 101 pitches. That being said, he bounced back nicely in his next outing, recording 7 strikeouts against a Mets team that is generally K-averse. That was Keller’s 11th time in his 14 starts recording at least 7 strikeouts this season. His workload is rather consistent, throwing 97.4 pitches per start and facing an average of 25.57 batters per game.
Part of what allows him to last so deep into games is his ability to get ahead in counts and work efficiently. His 65.1% first-pitch strike rate is a career-best mark. Keller begins counts 0-2 34.6% of the time, the 4th-highest mark in MLB among qualified pitchers. Milwaukee, his opponent tonight, swings at the 5th-lowest rate of first pitches. Overall, they have the 4th-lowest swing rate in baseball. The Brewers even take looking 3rd strikes, recording the 6th-most in baseball as a team this season. This is massive as Keller leads the MLB in strikeouts recorded via a looking 3rd strike this year with 42. Home-plate umpire Lance Barrett is also known for being relatively K-friendly, calling a fair share of strikes on pitches off the plate.
That poor strikeout total against Oakland was Keller’s only time this season falling short of this 6.5 line when on 5 days of rest. His other outings on 5 days of rest came against Boston, Houston, the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Arizona and Seattle. Of those teams, the Mariners are the only K-friendly matchup he had. Milwaukee is a plus matchup for the right-hander. The Brewers have the league’s 5th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 24.7%. In the last 30 days across a sample of 703 PA that rate has jumped to 27.5%, the 2nd-highest mark behind only Minnesota. During that span they rank just 25th in zone contact rate while their 29.9% CSW% is tied for 2nd-worst. Owen Miller is the only batter in tonight’s projected lineup with a strikeout rate below 21% against right-handed pitching this season.
The bottom of the order in particular is highly exposable with multiple targets hovering around 30%. Recent right-handed starters to clear their strikeout total against Milwaukee include Bailey Ober (7), Pablo Lopez (9), Paul Blackburn (5), Kyle Bradish (10), Kyle Gibson (7), and Kevin Gausman (11). With Pittsburgh on a 4-game losing streak, the Pirates are desperately looking for a masterful outing from Keller tonight. Look for his diverse arsenal to fool Milwaukee batters as he clears his 6.5 prop, something he did in 2 of 3 starts against them last season before his breakout.
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