Javan Shouey
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We have a full slate of Father’s Day MLB action this Sunday, June 16, but today’s prop article will focus in on 1 game. I am seeing some value in the prop market on both starting pitchers today, but for different reasons. Let’s dive in!
Logan Gilbert (SEA) under 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 1u.
Logan Gilbert has been a workhorse for the Seattle Mariners this season, consistently providing the club with 6 or 7 strong innings of work in his starts. The right-hander has established himself among the Mariners rotation in previous seasons but seems to have taken a step forward this year with career best marks in ERA, xERA, xFIP, and WHIP so far. Gilbert is finding success with his strong command of the strike zone and his ability to generate strikeouts, but the righty has also been very difficult to hit. On the year Gilbert ranks 67th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and his .234 xBA is a career best mark.
In 495.2 regular season innings of work entering this season, Gilbert had allowed 451 hits, good for 0.91 hits allowed per inning of work. That rate has fallen to 0.75 this season with only 68 hits surrendered across his first 90.1 innings. Among his 14 starts made, 10 have resulted in 5 or fewer hits surrendered, and Gilbert has allowed 4 or fewer in exactly half of his starts. Included in those fantastic outings was a start against this Texas Rangers lineup he will face today. Gilbert allowed just 2 hits in his 100 pitches, spanning 6.2 innings of shutout ball. Logan has found success against this Rangers lineup in the past as well, allowing 5 or fewer hits in each of their last 7 matchups. Overall, active Texas batters have 143 PA against Gilbert under their belt, but their combined batting average of just .218 exemplifies just how dominant he has been in this matchup.
Gilbert now draws Texas at a good time, as the Rangers have been slumping against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days they sit just 28th with their .212 average against RHP, and they sit 29th in wOBA with a league worse wRC+ of 71 in that span. A main concern with taking an under on a hits allowed prop is the pitcher’s leash, and while Gilbert typically works deep into games there is some extra hidden value today as Seattle has the day off tomorrow. Their bullpen has used Munoz, Stanek, and Bazardo each twice in the last 3 days, but with a schedule day off they could get away with a 3rd appearance within a 4-day window. Seattle also has Thornton, Voth, Saucedo, and Baumann available for this game after light recent usage.
Dane Dunning (TEX) under 15.5 outs recorded (-102)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 1u.
Like Logan Gilbert, Dane Dunning has also faced today’s opponent already this season, as these were the starting pitchers when these teams matched up on April 23. Dunning was far less successful than Gilbert was in that first matchup, and overall, this season has been a difficult one for the right-handed Ranger. Dane was a massive piece of the World Series winning team from last season, but his numbers have reverted back to what we came to expect for the majority of his early career.
Dunning is not someone that thrives on efficiency, ranking 13th worst among 127 qualified pitchers in pitches per plate appearance. His 4.08 mark is the result of a horrid 48.7% first-pitch strike rate, a mark easily ranking as the worst in MLB. His overall zone rate is down 4.1% from last season and a ton of those pitches are on non-competitive balls far outside the zone. Dunning has walked 11.3% of the batters he has seen this season, and his 12.8%-barrel rate ranks just 3rd percentile as well. That is a poor combination for working deep into games, and Texas has taken the initiative this season in limiting his PA the 3rd time through the order,
Last season Dunning allowed a 4.84 ERA and 4.87 FIP the 3rd time through the order, and his opponents SLG jumped up to .417. This season the Rangers have allowed Dunning to face just 34 batters for a 3rd time, and for good reason as he has allowed 15 baserunners and 7 runs in that sample. He is even struggling the 2nd time through with a 6.23 ERA and 4.80 FIP. Overall, Dunning has a 4.80 ERA and 5.26 FIP, but has room to get even worse when considering his BABIP sits at just .234 this season. A 46.8% hard-hit rate allowed and .259 xBA suggest there is regression in his batted ball profile moving forward.
Seattle is not the greatest offense in the world, but they do have a league average wRC+ of 100 against righties within the last 30 days. The Mariners are also the league’s most patient offense with an average of 4.06 pitches per plate appearance, and Dunning has allowed active Seattle bats to combine for an .855 OPS in 92 PA against him all-time. They also are likely to stack left-handed batters atop the order which plays into Dunning worse split and could lead to a quick hook the 3rd time through the order. Dunning completed just 13 outs against Seattle the first time this year and is under 15.5 in 8 of his last 9 outings.
