Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s MLB slate is an enticing one with all 30 teams in action and several enticing pitching matchups. The Orioles offense will look to remain hot against right-handed pitching in their matchup with Taijuan Walker and the Phillies, while Ryan Pepiot looks to continue his recent strikeout production in an advantageous matchup. Let’s dive in!
Baltimore Orioles first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 0.5u.
Baltimore Orioles first 7 innings team total over 3.5 (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 0.5u
Taijuan Walker is a pitcher I often look to bet against, and the Baltimore Orioles lineup is one of my favorites to bet on. The Phillies signed Walker to a lucrative contract in December of 2022, but the results have not been there as numerous replacement level arms have outperformed him during his tenure. Last season saw Walker toss 172.2 innings with a 4.38 ERA and 4.53 FIP. Those marks have regressed through 43.1 innings this season, as Walker’s 5.40 ERA is shadowed by a 5.12 FIP. His 1.45 WHIP is the result of a BABIP that is likely to decrease with a larger sample of innings, but this matchup is not the one where we should expect positive regression.
The Orioles in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching rank 2nd in MLB with a .345 wOBA. Their 128 wRC+ only trails the Yankees and they rank first in both SLG and hard-hit rate during that span. They are a low strikeout rate offense against righties and Walker’s strikeout prop sits at just 3.5 for this matchup as a result. With Walker ranking just 4th percentile in whiff rate and the Orioles having the league’s 6th highest swing rate in the last month there should be a ton of balls in play during this matchup. Taijuan ranks just 6th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed at 48.4% and has struggled to keep the ball on the ground with a 10th percentile ground ball rate and a 1st percentile barrel rate.
Walker has been at his worst when facing left-handed hitting, and Baltimore is capable of stacking lefties in their lineup without sacrificing production due to their elite depth. The majority of the hitters at the top of Baltimore’s every day lineup are lefties or switch-hitters, and lefties are hitting .330 against Walker this season with a .956 OPS. He has struggled out of the gates this season, allowing opponents to record a .915 OPS the first time through the order and I look for the Orioles to pounce early and often in their home park.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 1u.
The Atlanta Braves still possess a ton of talent within their lineup, but the absences of both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris III make them far easier to pitch against. After what was a historic offensive season in 2023, the Braves have seen numerous pieces of their lineup take a step back in terms of production. Across the entire season they sit 13th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 99 against right-handed pitching, but those numbers are far worse across the last 30 days. In that span they sit just 24th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 86, and their 24.3% K% is the 8th highest mark in MLB. Their plate discipline has been lacking with the 8th highest chase rate and 2nd highest swing rate overall, and their contact skills have also trailed off with the 6th lowest in-zone contact rate and 5th highest swinging strike rate.
Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Jared Kelenic each have a K% of at least 25% vs RHP in 150 PA or more, while Adam Duvall and both catchers have been great strikeout targets in smaller samples. This provides Rays starter Ryan Pepiot with numerous batters he can punch out, and with how elite his stuff is he is capable of striking out anyone. Pepiot ranks 89th percentile in strikeout rate this season thanks to an 88th percentile whiff rate and 69th percentile CSW%. His ability to win within the zone intrigues me for this matchup, and his Z-Contact% allowed is the 7th lowest among all pitchers with at least 50 innings this season.
Pepiot has averaged a strikeout every 13.41 pitches thrown this season and has averaged 90 pitches per start across his last 3 outings since being stretched out post IL stint. He has 6 or more strikeouts in 7 of 9 starts this season when reaching at least 80 pitches, and Tampa Bay would love for him to work deep into the game given Zack Littell’s short start yesterday. Four separate Tampa Bay relievers saw at least 20 pitches yesterday and 3 of them would be making their 3rd appearance within the last 4 days if they entered the game today. Pepiot saw his outs recorded line open at 15.5 with -110 juice on either side and it has since been bet to 16.5 with heavy juice towards the over. It is worth mentioning that he is on only 4 days of rest, but his other 2 starts this year on 4 days of rest resulted in 92 and 80 pitches, recording 6 innings of work in both.
